Rising fuel prices could threaten Ghana’s inflation outlook for 2026, according to the latest monthly inflation report by Deloitte.
The report warns that higher fuel costs are likely to push up energy expenses and transport fares, increasing pressure on consumer prices.
Deloitte believes the Bank of Ghana may adopt a more cautious approach to monetary policy as inflation risks build.
As a result, the central bank is expected to reduce interest rates at a slower pace than previously anticipated.
The report also projects an increase in food inflation in the months ahead. It explains that seasonal factors could reduce the supply of key staple foods such as maize, rice, and cassava, leading to higher food prices.
At the same time, non-food inflation is expected to rise gradually. Higher costs for housing, utilities, and transportation are likely to contribute to the increase.
Deloitte further noted that fluctuations in the exchange rate could make imported goods more expensive, while rising service charges may add further pressure.
“The pressures from potential exchange rate volatility affecting imported goods and upward adjustments in service costs could also heighten inflationary pressures on this sub-index”.
After declining continuously for 15 months, Ghana’s inflation rate recorded a slight increase in April 2026. The annual inflation rate rose by 0.2 percentage points to 3.4%. Monthly inflation also accelerated, climbing from 0.1% in March to 1.0% in April, marking the highest monthly increase since February 2025.
Despite the overall rise in inflation, food inflation eased slightly. The year-on-year rate dropped to 2.2% in April from 2.3% in March. Improved local food supplies, favourable growing conditions, and the relative stability of the cedi helped reduce price pressures on products such as okra, kontomire, watermelon, and garden eggs. Stable exchange rates also helped lower the cost of imported agricultural inputs.
However, non-food inflation increased from 3.9% to 4.2% over the same period. Rising fuel prices pushed transport costs higher, while persistent cost pressures in housing and utility services also contributed to the increase.
Among all expenditure categories, Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels recorded the highest inflation rate at 12.48%. Insurance and Financial Services followed with 7.9%, while Education Services and Restaurants and Accommodation Services each posted 7.5%. Recreation, Sports and Culture rounded out the top five categories with an inflation rate of 4.8%.
