A German economist whose statistical model correctly predicted the winners of the last three FIFA World Cups has tipped the Netherlands to win the 2026 tournament.
Joachim Klement, an economist and market strategist, has gained attention for accurately forecasting Germany’s triumph in 2014, France’s victory in 2018, and Argentina’s success in 2022 using a model that combines economic, demographic and football-related factors.
According to recent reports, his latest projection points to the Netherlands as the team most likely to lift the trophy in North America.
Klement’s model goes beyond football performance alone. It takes into account variables such as population size, GDP per capita, climate, FIFA ranking points and host-country advantage.
While he acknowledges that luck and unpredictable events still play a major role in football, the model has built a strong reputation after three successful World Cup predictions.
According to the forecast, the Netherlands will defeat Portugal in the final to win their first-ever World Cup title. The model also predicts an all-European semi-final lineup, with Portugal overcoming England and the Dutch eliminating Spain on their way to the final.
Several surprise results are also included in the projection. Among the biggest shocks is a prediction that Japan will eliminate Brazil in the Round of 16, while Portugal is forecast to knock out defending champions Argentina before reaching the final.
The prediction is particularly significant because the Netherlands are widely regarded as one of football’s greatest nations never to have won the World Cup.
The Dutch have reached the final three times, in 1974, 1978 and 2010, but finished runners-up on each occasion.
Despite the attention generated by his forecast, Klement has repeatedly cautioned fans against treating the model as a guarantee.
He has stressed that football remains highly unpredictable and that statistical projections cannot account for every factor that influences tournament outcomes.
