Headline inflation is projected to return to the Bank of Ghana’s medium-term target of 8% (±2%), provided there are no major economic shocks.
According to the Bank’s March 2026 Monetary Policy Report, risks remain particularly from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East which could push inflation higher.
This underscores the need to maintain a careful and appropriate monetary policy stance.
Inflation stood at 3.2% in March 2026, marking 15 straight months of decline.
On a monthly basis, headline inflation fell from 0.9% in December 2025 to 0.2% in January 2026, before rising slightly to 0.8% in February.
Food inflation continued to ease, dropping from 4.9% in December to 3.9% in January and further to 2.4% in February.
Non-food inflation, however, declined from 5.8% to 3.9% between December and January, then edged up slightly to 4.0% in February.
At its March 2026 meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee noted significant improvements in the economy, including stable inflation expectations, stronger external reserves, and renewed investor confidence.
The Committee expects inflation to remain below the midpoint of the 8% (±2%) target range in the first quarter of 2026.
However, it cautioned that factors such as higher utility tariffs and global tensions could put upward pressure on prices.
Despite these risks, the Committee believes that disciplined monetary policy, fiscal consolidation, and strong reserve buffers will help guide inflation back to its target range.
Based on this outlook, the Committee voted by majority to reduce the Monetary Policy Rate by 150 basis points, bringing it down to 14%.
