Former Finance Minister Dr Mohammed Amin Adam has warned that Ghana’s recent debt relief could be reversed by exchange-rate fluctuations, falling commodity prices and slower economic growth.
He said the improvement in the country’s reported debt position did not necessarily mean its underlying debt obligations had reduced by the same amount.
His analysis showed that the cedi’s appreciation in 2025 reduced the cedi value of Ghana’s external debt by GH¢125.3 billion, even though the actual amount owed in foreign currency remained unchanged.
However, between January and July 2026, external debt fell by about US$600 million in dollar terms but increased by GH¢14.8 billion when measured in cedis.
The provisional debt data also suggested that the cedi weakened by about 6% between January and July 2026, following its 40.7% appreciation in 2025.
Dr Amin Adam said these changes showed how movements in the exchange rate could affect Ghana’s reported debt figures without changing the underlying foreign-currency obligations.
“A larger reversal in the exchange rate, weaker commodity prices, or slower growth could quickly raise the debt ratio and debt-service burden,” he wrote.
He stressed that lasting improvements in Ghana’s debt position would require more than a stronger cedi and high gold prices.
According to him, sustainable debt management would depend on maintaining primary budget surpluses, improving revenue collection, controlling government spending commitments and securing loans with affordable interest rates and repayment periods.
He also called for greater clarity in Ghana’s debt statistics, urging authorities to distinguish between new borrowing, changes in debt values caused by exchange-rate movements, the recognition of arrears and the reclassification of existing debt.
He said this would help policymakers and the public better understand the country’s true fiscal position.
