Ghana’s push to build up its foreign exchange and gold reserves could come at a significant fiscal cost, potentially putting pressure on the recent improvement in the country’s public finances, S&P Global has warned.
The international rating agency says the Ghana Accelerated National Reserve Accumulation Policy (GANRAP), which relies heavily on gold to strengthen the country’s external buffers, could impose substantial local-currency costs on government.
S&P estimates the fiscal cost could range between 0.8% and 2.6% of Ghana’s annual GDP.
The assessment comes as Ghana continues to pursue an aggressive reserve accumulation strategy. Under GANRAP, government aims to significantly increase the country’s import cover through gold-backed reserve accumulation.
However, S&P says the cost of the strategy could become a challenge for fiscal management, particularly if other pressures on government finances intensify.
The rating agency also points to the deteriorating financial position of the Bank of Ghana, which recorded an operating loss of $1.25 billion in 2025, worsening its negative equity position to 6.7% of GDP.
Government has begun a phased recapitalisation programme for the central bank, expected to run until 2032. S&P, however, says restoring the Bank’s capital position is likely to require the government to issue additional debt.
The agency also acknowledges efforts to reduce the fiscal burden associated with the gold sector, including reforms to the regulatory and tax framework and the planned shift to a dynamic sliding-scale royalty system.
But it cautions that external shocks could undermine some of the expected gains.
In particular, S&P points to higher international fuel prices linked to the conflict in the Middle East, which could increase domestic input and transport costs and offset some of the fiscal benefits from the reforms.
Ghana’s inflation has fallen sharply from its 54.1% peak in December 2022 to 5% in August 2026. S&P, however, notes that price pressures have begun to pick up in recent months.
Despite these pressures, the agency says the Ghanaian economy has shown relative resilience to the effects of the Middle East conflict, although higher fuel and transportation costs are beginning to weigh on businesses and households.
