The foreign exchange market continues to exhibit a wide gap between official and informal dollar rates despite the cedi retaining most of its recent gains.
Forex bureaus are quoting between GH¢12.35 and GH¢12.50 to the dollar on Thursday, June 18, while black-market operators traded around GH¢12.30, compared with the Bank of Ghana’s official interbank selling rate of GH¢11.1986.
The premium of GH¢1.15-GH¢1.30 above the interbank rate, equivalent to 10.3 percent-11.6 percent, has persisted even as the local currency records one of its strongest performances in recent months, supported by improved foreign exchange liquidity, rising reserves and sustained central bank interventions.
The interbank selling rate weakened modestly during this week, moving from GH¢11.0555 on Monday to GH¢11.1986 on Thursday, a 1.3 percent depreciation. That followed a 7.15 percent appreciation the previous week, when the exchange rate strengthened from about GH¢11.80 to GH¢11.05.
During the same period, the cedi gained 6.59 percent against the pound and 6.85 percent against the euro, although the pound sterling has since moved above GH¢15.00 amid global currency adjustments.
Strong liquidity underpins recovery
Market participants attribute the recovery largely to stronger liquidity conditions, improved interbank trading activity and continued Bank of Ghana dollar sales. During the week, the central bank offered US$260 million through scheduled foreign exchange auctions against bids of about US$155 million, representing a bid-cover ratio of 59.6 percent and indicating demand remained well below available supply.
The persistence of the bureau and street-market premium suggests retail dollar markets have yet to fully reflect improved interbank conditions. While the BoG’s auction programme supplies dollars to banks for wholesale and corporate transactions, retail demand for travel, remittances and small trade payments is largely served through forex bureaus and informal channels that rely on a more constrained supply pool.
BoG tightens oversight of FX channels
The divergence has renewed attention on recent Bank of Ghana directives requiring banks, specialised deposit-taking institutions, electronic money issuers and payment service providers to cease facilitating access to unauthorised foreign-currency wallet services offered by certain crypto platforms.
The central bank said some platforms had been providing fiat U.S. dollar wallet services to Ghanaian users through bank transfers, payment cards and other channels operated by regulated institutions without the approvals required under the Payment Systems and Services Act, 2019 (Act 987) and the Foreign Exchange Act, 2006 (Act 723). Institutions supporting such arrangements have been directed to discontinue them immediately, with non-compliance attracting supervisory or enforcement action.
In a separate notice, the BoG extended the registration deadline for existing International Money Transfer Operators (IMTOs) to July 31, 2026, allowing additional time to comply with guidelines issued earlier this year. The regulator warned that partnerships between non-compliant operators and regulated financial institutions would become null and void after the deadline and could trigger further enforcement measures.
Iran deal shifts energy market outlook
The regulatory actions coincide with developments in global energy markets that could ease one of Ghana’s most persistent sources of foreign exchange demand. The United States and Iran have reached a memorandum of understanding to end their conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with a formal interim agreement expected to be signed in Switzerland on June 19. The agreement provides for the immediate resumption of Iranian oil exports and the restoration of commercial shipping through the strategic waterway.
Oil markets have responded sharply. Brent crude fell to about US$79.45 per barrel on Wednesday, its lowest level since early March and nearly 40 percent below its conflict peak. Goldman Sachs has revised its fourth-quarter 2026 Brent forecast to US$80 per barrel and expects Persian Gulf crude exports to return to pre-war levels by end-July.
Lower oil prices could ease FX demand
The Bank of Ghana’s latest monetary policy assessment identified energy-sector foreign exchange demand as one of the two principal drivers of the cedi’s roughly 11 percent depreciation against the dollar in the year to end-May. With limited domestic refining capacity, Ghana remains heavily dependent on imported petroleum products, making global oil prices a key determinant of foreign exchange demand.
Sustained lower oil prices would reduce dollar outflows for fuel imports and ease pressure on the currency. Lower import costs have already contributed to a reduction in fuel price floors, with further relief expected in the next pricing window.
Analysts caution, however, that the full impact on Ghana’s import bill may take time to emerge. Repairing damaged infrastructure, repositioning tanker fleets and rebuilding depleted inventories could take several months. Questions also remain over the durability of the agreement, which includes a 60-day negotiation period on Iran’s nuclear programme. Failure to reach a settlement could see tensions re-emerge.
External buffers continue to strengthen
The developments come amid broader improvements in Ghana’s external position. The current account surplus widened to US$3.10 billion in the first quarter of 2026 from US$2.43 billion a year earlier, supported by strong gold and cocoa exports and resilient remittance inflows. Gross International Reserves rose to US$14.4 billion as of May 18, 2026, from US$13.8 billion at end-December 2025, equivalent to about 5.7 months of import cover.
With reserves strengthening, energy-related import costs expected to moderate and the cedi holding most of its recent gains in the official market, attention is turning to whether improved interbank conditions will filter through to bureau and street-market rates and whether tighter oversight of informal payment channels will help narrow the premium faced by retail dollar buyers.
