IC Research, a leading market research firm, says a modest uptick in inflation is likely in April 2026.
“As of the first pricing window in April 2026, our indicative domestic petrol price is up 10.9% while diesel surged 32.1% year-to-date, mainly due to the war-induced upsurge in global energy prices and slightly due to the 4.9% year-to-date cedi depreciation”, it disclosed in its analysis of the March 2026 inflation.
However, it said the year-on-year comparison showed softer dynamics with petrol still down by 11.3% while diesel is up 10.9%. “Measured against other price risks, we forecast annual inflation at 3.4% in April 2026 while the month-on-month rate jumps to 1.0%.”
It also believed that the current inflation print reinforces Ghana’s return to price stability.
Accordingly, the policy grip on inflation expectations may prove more resilient than generally anticipated amidst the reemerging cost pressures.
It continued that the inflation framework appears shock-ready given the vast scope below the minimum target.
“At the current 3.2%, Ghana’s annual inflation stands at 280 basis points [bps] below the minimum target, 480bps below the midpoint and 680bps headroom to the Bank of Ghana’s target ceiling. While the ongoing Middle East war with a resultant surge in energy prices portends price pressure with a potential feedback loop, the substantial runway to key inflation thresholds with double digit real policy rate indicate a shockready system”.
It added that further escalation with persistent rise in energy prices will intensify the price pressure but our updated near-term forecast suggests inflation should remain in single digits through 2026, further helped by year-long effect of lower VAT regime.
Headline inflation inched down by 10bps to 3.2% year-on-year, representing the 15th consecutive month of disinflation.
Food inflation eased marginally by 10bps to 2.3% year-on-year, helped by disinflation for 11 sub-groups with nine of the decliners assigned low-to-moderate weights within the price index.
Non-food inflation moved in lock-step with food inflation, also declining by 10bps to 3.9% year-on-year as disinflation for seven divisions was partly offset by reflation for three moderate-to-heavily-weighted items.
