Fitch Solutions, the research arm of global credit ratings agency Fitch, has projected that Ghana’s inflation will rise in the coming months, reaching 9% by the end of 2026.
The firm said the expected increase will largely be driven by renewed pressure on the Ghana cedi.
Associate Director at Fitch Solutions, Mike Kruiniger, made the projection during PwC Ghana’s webinar on the 2026 Mid-Year Budget Review.
According to him, the sharp decline in inflation in recent months has been largely supported by the cedi’s strong performance.
“Now, based on the new stance of the Bank of Ghana, in the coming months, we don’t expect the cedi to stabilise strongly.”
Fitch Solutions’ forecast is significantly higher than Finance Minister Dr Cassiel Ato Forson’s latest projection of 5% inflation by the end of the year.
Speaking in an interview, the Finance Minister maintained that inflation would fall to 5% by December despite ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Fitch Solutions also projects inflation to rise further to 13.2% by the end of 2027.
The firm said this will be driven by stronger domestic demand, mounting imported inflation as the cedi weakens on a year-on-year basis, and higher food prices linked to El Niño-related weather disruptions.
Government Maintains Inflation Target
Speaking at the same PwC Ghana webinar, Technical Advisor to the Finance Minister, Dr Theo Acheampong, said the Ministry of Finance still expects inflation to end 2026 within its target range of 8%, plus or minus 2 percentage points.
He said the projection is based on several scenarios and economic assessments undertaken by the ministry.
Dr Acheampong also assured that the government remains committed to fiscal discipline to sustain the current macroeconomic gains.
He explained that no additional funding was sought in the Mid-Year Budget because the government believes prudent expenditure management will enable it to meet its spending obligations.
Fitch Optimistic About Ghana’s Economy
Despite its inflation concerns, Fitch Solutions maintained a positive outlook for Ghana’s economy.
Mr Kruiniger said Ghana remains relatively insulated from the ongoing US-Iran conflict, supported by elevated gold prices, which continue to provide a strong external buffer, as well as the country’s broadly balanced energy trade position.
Fitch Solutions forecasts Ghana’s economy to grow by 5.7% in 2026, above the 2016–2025 average of 4.9%, driven by resilient domestic demand and continued growth in the mining sector.
The firm also described the fiscal path outlined in the Mid-Year Budget Review as credible, projecting a commitment-basis fiscal deficit of 1.7% of GDP, lower than the government’s target of 2.2%, largely due to slower execution of development projects and lower borrowing costs.
However, Fitch cautioned that risks remain. These include a more hawkish US Federal Reserve, which could weigh on gold prices, and a stronger-than-expected El Niño event that could further increase food prices.
