Ghana’s cocoa production is projected to decrease by at least 16% during the 2026 to 2027 season, according to market regulator COCOBOD.
The regulator attributes this decline to weather impacts, the crop’s natural fruit-bearing cycle, and disease, providing further context to concerns raised by farmers. Ghanaian economic overview
In response to inquiries from Reuters, COCOBOD indicated that the reduction is influenced by the anticipated El Niño conditions, excessive rainfall in May and June of this year, and the physiological bearing pattern of the cocoa tree, which typically alternates between years of high and low yields.
COCOBOD noted that a low cherelle load, the number of small pods that reach maturity, in the Western and Western North regions aligns with these factors.
The regulator also mentioned that the situation in these two regions, which collectively contribute over half of Ghana’s cocoa output, has been worsened by the combined effects of swollen shoot disease, aging cocoa farms, and an increase in illegal gold mining.
Locally referred to as galamsey, the illegal mining activities result in farms being overtaken by miners.
The forecast for the 12-month season commencing in September follows alerts from farmers in the Western and Western North regions, who have reported significantly reduced pod counts this season.
COCOBOD stated that it has implemented measures to mitigate losses, including rehabilitating infected farms in the Western North Region, enhancing insecticide and fungicide spraying, and reintroducing a nationwide free fertilizer distribution program for the 2026/27 crop year.
West Africa’s cocoa outlook has previously been adjusted downward, and production in the Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer, is anticipated to decline by more than 10% in the upcoming season.
