The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Ghana’s debt-to-GDP ratio to rise to 53.0% by the end of 2026, up from 45.3% in 2025.
The projection was published in the IMF’s Fiscal Monitor Report during the 2026 Spring Meetings with the World Bank in Washington, DC.
The report did not clearly explain the cause of the expected increase, noting only that “Government debt and interest rate projections are based on a post-debt restructuring scenario.”
Ghana’s debt position has shifted in recent years.
Data from the Bank of Ghana shows the debt-to-GDP ratio was 61.8% in 2024, with total debt at GH¢726.7 billion.
In 2025, it improved to 45.3%, with total debt falling to GH¢641 billion.
Experts say future debt levels will depend on key factors such as borrowing, exchange rate movements, and economic growth.
Some analysts warn that increased borrowing or a weaker cedi could push debt higher, while slower growth may also affect the ratio.
In April 2026, the government raised GH¢2.7 billion through a 7-year bond, marking a return to long-term domestic borrowing after the Debt Exchange Programme.
The bond carries a 12.5% interest rate and matures on March 29, 2033.
Despite the projected rise in 2026, the IMF expects the ratio to ease slightly to 50.7% in 2027.
The Ghana Statistical Service reports that the economy has expanded to GH¢1.4 trillion, up from GH¢1.1 trillion in 2024.
Finance Minister Cassiel Ato Forson outlined measures in the 2026 Budget to manage debt, including securing concessional loans, rebuilding the Sinking Fund, continuing debt restructuring and buybacks, and improving transparency.
He said the aim is to stay in control of borrowing, stating it is about “managing debt, not being managed by it.”
The government hopes to return Ghana to a moderate risk of debt distress by 2028. While the IMF still classifies the country as being in debt distress, it has acknowledged recent progress and sees room for improvement if reforms continue.
Globally, the IMF warns that public debt is rising and could reach 100% of global GDP by 2029, urging countries to adopt “credible, well-sequenced fiscal adjustment” to reduce financial risks.
