Oil prices continued to climb on Wednesday amid fresh concerns about global supply. Reports that the United States may tighten its blockade on Iranian ports have raised fears of reduced oil exports from the region.
At the same time, the United Arab Emirates’ announcement that it plans to exit OPEC has added to market uncertainty.
Brent crude for June delivery rose 6.45% to $118.40 per barrel, while WTI crude gained 7.20% to $107.10. Gasoline prices are also edging higher, with the U.S. national average reaching $4.229 per gallon.
The ongoing conflict remains unresolved, with no clear progress from either side. Mixed signals from U.S. leadership have added to uncertainty in the market.
Analysts at Standard Chartered say the U.S. still appears interested in restarting negotiations, noting that each day of stalemate keeps oil supplies tight, reduces inventories, and sustains high prices—an especially sensitive issue in an election year.
A possible first step toward easing tensions would be lifting the U.S. blockade alongside Iran removing restrictions on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio criticized Iran’s current approach, saying its control over which ships can pass is unacceptable.
Standard Chartered believes allowing free passage could build trust and open the door for broader talks, including discussions on Iran’s nuclear program. This could help bring oil prices down to around $90–$95 per barrel, although supply recovery may take time due to disruptions over recent months.
Meanwhile, OPEC+’s decision to delay increasing oil production has reportedly frustrated the UAE, contributing to its decision to leave the group in May.
The UAE, which accounts for a significant share of OPEC output, has been expanding its production capacity and aims to reach 5 million barrels per day by 2027. Leaving OPEC+ would give it more flexibility to respond to market conditions and pursue national interests.
Experts warn that the UAE’s exit could reduce OPEC’s spare production capacity, which has largely been supported by Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
In the long term, analysts expect oil prices to remain elevated—even after the conflict ends—due to ongoing supply concerns, strategic stockpiling, and logistical challenges.
Natural gas markets are also reacting. European gas prices rebounded to about €47.4 per MWh after earlier declines, driven by rising geopolitical risks. The conflict has disrupted LNG supplies, including shipments from Qatar, and increased competition for gas between Europe and Asia.
At the same time, the United States has strengthened its position as Europe’s largest LNG supplier, now providing about two-thirds of imports, with additional support coming from countries like Algeria and Norway.
