Diesel prices are expected to increase by about 1.39% in the second pricing window of August, while petrol and LPG prices are projected to decline by about 2.90% and 0.93%, respectively.
This is according to the latest pricing outlook from the Chamber of Oil Marketing Companies (COMAC).
The industry body said the mixed outlook reflects uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran dispute, as well as higher international crude oil prices.
COMAC, however, expects the government-industry intervention on diesel to continue cushioning consumers from the full impact of higher diesel prices at the pump.
It also said the recent appreciation of the cedi could provide further relief in the coming pricing windows if the trend is sustained.
Petroleum Product Prices on the International Market
Average crude oil prices rose by 2.02% to $90.41 per barrel in mid-August, driven by geopolitical risks and potential supply disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.
Refined petroleum products also recorded mixed movements. Diesel prices increased by 2.86%, while petrol and LPG prices declined by 5.46% and 2.54%, respectively.
Diesel prices came under renewed pressure following another Ukrainian attack on a Russian refinery and a Houthi attack on a Saudi refining facility.
Cedi Performance
Meanwhile, the cedi depreciated by 1.20% to GH¢11.80 to the dollar between July 27 and August 11, based on bank averages.
The local currency has since strengthened, with the Bank of Ghana rate at GH¢10.98 to the dollar on August 14.
COMAC expects further appreciation if current foreign exchange supply conditions persist, which could help lower the local cost of imported petroleum products in subsequent pricing windows.
Price floors for second pricing window of August
The latest outlook is broadly consistent with the National Petroleum Authority’s price floors for the second pricing window of August.
The petrol price floor has been reduced by GH¢0.61 per litre, from GH¢14.53 to GH¢13.92, while the LPG price floor has fallen by GH¢0.08 per kilogram, from GH¢11.06 to GH¢10.98.
Diesel, however, has moved in the opposite direction, with its price floor increasing by GH¢0.22 per litre, from GH¢14.97 to GH¢15.19.
The changes could translate into some relief for petrol and LPG consumers, while diesel users may continue to face higher operating and transport costs.
However, the NPA price floors do not represent final pump prices, as Oil Marketing Companies apply their own margins and other charges.
The latest movement follows the government’s decision to reduce the regulatory margin on diesel by GH¢2 per litre for one month, which brought the diesel price floor down from GH¢16.97 to GH¢14.97 in the first pricing window of August.
For motorists and businesses, the outlook suggests that fuel price pressures remain uneven, with a stronger cedi offering some relief but global crude and refined-product prices continuing to pose risks, particularly for diesel users.
