US markets opened Wednesday in positive territory but more muted than pre-market gains suggested, after President Trump told the New York Post it was “too soon” to plan a peace signing ceremony with Iran.
The SPY opened up 0.58%, QQQ up 0.82% and the DIA up 0.97%, solid gains, but a step back from the enthusiasm that greeted early reports of a near-deal.
International markets jumped the most on the news, with Vanguard’s VXUS ETF climbing 2.2%
Oil stocks remain under heavy pressure:
- Equinor -8%
- Eni -4.62%
- TotalEnergies -4%,
- BP -3.48%
- Petrobras -3.6%,
- ExxonMobil -3.6%
- Shell -2.46%.
Chevron is the lone outlier, edging up 0.19%.
The divergence between the broader market and energy stocks tells the story of the day: investors are still pricing in some probability of a deal, but with less conviction than at the open.
The oil trade is a direct bet on Hormuz, and right now, that bet is getting more complicated by the hour.
