Ratings agency Fitch Ratings says it expects the Bank of Ghana to maintain a cautious monetary policy stance and pause further interest rate cuts to keep inflation under control.
This follows a cumulative 1,400 basis points reduction in the policy rate between July 2025 and March 2026, which brought the benchmark rate down to 14%.
The comments were contained in Fitch’s latest assessment after it upgraded Ghana’s credit rating to B with a stable outlook.
According to Fitch, inflation is likely to rise gradually in the coming months as the impact of the cedi’s appreciation weakens and higher global oil prices begin to affect domestic prices.
“Inflation slowed to 3.2% year-on-year in March 2026, its lowest level since 1999, supported by the appreciation of the exchange rate.
It edged up slightly to 3.4% in April 2026, and we expect it to rise gradually towards the end of the year as exchange rate effects fade and higher oil prices feed into local prices,” Fitch stated.
Despite this expected increase, the agency said average inflation is still projected to remain on a downward trend in both 2026 and 2027.
Fitch also projected that Ghana’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth will remain strong through 2027, averaging about 5%.
The growth outlook will be supported by stronger gold production prospects, improved consumer confidence driven by lower inflation and borrowing costs, and a less restrictive fiscal policy stance.
The agency added that Ghana maintains a moderate score on the World Bank Governance Indicators, ranking at the 51st percentile.
This reflects the country’s record of peaceful political transitions, moderate political participation rights, established rule of law, moderate institutional strength, and manageable levels of corruption.
However, Fitch warned that certain risks could lead to a downgrade of Ghana’s rating in the future.
On public finances, the agency said weaker fiscal performance such as lower-than-expected primary budget surpluses caused by higher government spending or failure to sustain public financial management reforms could negatively affect the rating.
It also warned that rising debt servicing costs, especially if inflation turns out higher than expected, could put pressure on government finances.
On external finances, Fitch said Ghana could face rating pressure if it fails to continue building its external reserves, particularly in the event of worsening global trade conditions or commodity price shocks.
