Oil prices have dipped below $100 as weaker demand outlooks and a pause in U.S.–Iran tensions shift market focus to upcoming diplomatic talks and potential escalation risks.
Calm Seas, High Stakes: Hormuz Traffic Crawls as Gulf Freight Costs Surge
– The first days of the US blockade on vessels calling at Iranian ports have so far been largely uneventful as several Iran-linked tankers managed to sail through the Strait of Hormuz without any interference.
– At the same time, most of tankers were moving into the Persian Gulf and so far only two ships managed to move out of the Gulf since Monday afternoon, with no Iranian crude shipments seen so far.
– Tehran might be wary of sending crude tankers through the Hormuz, potentially to be intercepted by the US Navy, claiming they’ll temporarily pause shipments before the next round of talks.
– Pakistani sources indicate that this weekend could see another round of US-Iranian negotiations after the first round of Islamabad talks on April 11-12 yielded no results.
– Average daily transits through the Hormuz before the war averaged 135 per day, falling to 8-10 transits per day in April so far.
– The lack of diplomatic progress and Trump’s declared counter-blockade have started to push freight rates up again, with Gulf-China VLCC charter rates now rebounding above $80/tonne, the equivalent of $11/barrel.
Market Movers
– Italy’s oil major ENI (BIT:ENI) has announced the discovery of commercial reserves of natural gas with its 1-4/16 exploration well offshore Libya, some 95 km from the country’s coast in the Pelagian Basin.
– UK energy major BP (NYSE:BP) has agreed to purchase stakes in three offshore exploration blocks in Namibia, marking its entry to the nascent oil producer, farming into plays operated by frontier driller Eco Atlantic.
– US oil services giant Baker Hughes (NASDAQ:BKR) said it would sell its unit, Waygate Technologies, to Sweden-based Hexagon for $1.45 billion in cash, continuing its strategy of divesting non-core assets.
– French energy major TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE) has signed a preliminary agreement with Turkey’s TPAO to explore the country’s Black Sea waters for oil, only three years after pulling out of gas exploration in adjacent Bulgaria’s offshore.
– Brazil’s state oil firm Petrobras (NYSE:PBR) reported another deepwater discovery in the Campos Basin some 200 km off the coast of Rio de Janeiro, finding commercial reserves of oil within Block-C-M-477.
Tuesday, April 14, 2026
The IEA’s drastic slashing of 2026 global demand growth and the awkward lull in US-Iran confrontation have pushed oil prices lower so far this week, with ICE Brent back at trading several dollars below the $100 per barrel mark. Unless the US blockade of the Arabian Sea turns to a kinetic phase over the upcoming days, the second round of Islamabad talks will shape the futures curve of crude oil.
Chevron Expands Its Footprint in Venezuela. US oil major Chevron (NYSE:CVX) will increase its stake in Venezuela’s Petroindependencia project from 34% to 49%, whilst also getting an unspecified stake in the newly formed Ayacucho joint venture with PDVSA, boosting its outlook profile in the country.
IEA Warns of a Giant Wave of Demand Destruction. According to the International Energy Agency, global oil demand will contract this year by 80,000 b/d, the first annual decline in consumption since the COVID-19 peak year of 2020, down more than 700,000 b/d compared to last month’s forecast.
China’s Appetite for Saudi Oil Wanes. Saudi state oil firm Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) has received the lowest volume of monthly nominations from Chinese term buyers in history, with only 18 million barrels of China-bound oil expected to load in May, dropping by 750,000 b/d from April.
Oman Offers New Exploration Blocks. Benefitting from a reputation boost after the US-Iran war has largely left its upstream industry unscathed, the government of Oman is now offering 5 concession areas in the eastern and central parts of the Middle Eastern country, covering a total of 53,275 km2.
China Continues to Import Oil, Despite Iran War. China’s crude oil imports averaged 11.77 million b/d in March, only 2.8% lower year-over-year despite the loss of most Middle Eastern supplies, even though refinery utilization rates have dipped below 70%
Philippines Seeks US Waiver on Russian Imports. The Philippines’ Ministry of Energy has asked the US Treasury Department for a waiver to continue importing Russian crude oil and petroleum products, claiming that the country needs more ‘options’ to maintain stable energy supplies.
India Hints at Further Hormuz Passages Ahead. The Indian government said that it had ‘good contacts’ with Iranian authorities on potential passage of Indian ships via the Strait of Hormuz, after at least 8 India-flagged vessels have managed to leave the Persian Gulf since the US-Iran war started.
BP’s New CEO Eyes Splitting of Company into Two. BP’s new chief executive Meg O’Neill is considering splitting the UK-based energy giant into two units, creating a business focused solely on oil and gas exploration and another covering refining, distribution and retail operations.
Methanol Tanker Breaks Trump’s Hormuz Blockade. An Iran-linked but Chinese-owned tanker carrying methanol to China became the first ship moving out of the Persian Gulf to breach the Trump administration’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, lowering risks of immediate escalation in the seas.
Financial Organizations Warn Against Energy Hoarding. The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank launched a joint call against hoarding energy supplies and imposing export controls on commodities, claiming protectionist measures exacerbate the impact of the Hormuz Strait closure.
Brazil Wants Its Refinery Back. Brazil’s state oil company Petrobras (NYSE:PBR) is reportedly in initial talks with Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund Mubadala to repurchase the 300,000 b/d Mataripe refinery, sold five years ago for $1.7 billion, claiming it is running at only 60% of its capacity.
India Buys Its 1st Iranian Cargoes Since 2019. India’s largest state-owned refiner IOC purchased the country’s first Iranian oil cargo in seven years, with the Curacao-flagged Jaya tanker delivering 2 million barrels of oil to the port of Odisha, with privately owned Reliance taking a similar VLCC cargo to Sikka.
Russia Imposes Export Controls on Helium. Following the loss of Qatari helium supply for the next 1-2 years, the global chipmaking industry is facing shortages of a key component for chip lithography as Russia has imposed export controls, potentially taking 10% of global supply off the market.
Dr. Copper Hopes for a Quick End to War. Copper prices climbed to their highest in more than a month after Iran confirmed its readiness for second-round negotiations with the United States, with the benchmark three-month ME contract trading above $13,180/tonne on hopes of a potential deal.
