Global cocoa prices are expected to drop sharply in 2026 after reaching record highs in recent years, according to the World Bank’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook.
The report projects prices will fall from about $7.80 per kilogram in 2025 to around $3.80 in 2026, a 51.3% decline before rising slightly to about $4.20 in 2027.
This drop is mainly due to an expected recovery in global cocoa supply following shortages that pushed prices up over the past two years.
The forecast is part of the World Bank’s April 2026 outlook, which also predicts a general decline in beverage commodity prices, including cocoa and coffee, after strong increases in 2024 and 2025.
Although prices are set to fall, they are likely to remain higher than long-term averages, reflecting ongoing uncertainty in agricultural markets.
For major producers like Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, the decline could affect export earnings and farmer incomes, especially if production increases significantly.
The report adds that global commodity prices will continue to be influenced by economic trends, geopolitical events, and weather conditions that impact agricultural output.
