Oil selloff outruns reality in Hormuz

WTI crude oil futures were trading at $83.51 late Thursday, down $3.13, or 3.61%, for the week.

The market opened near the weekly high at $86.57, then broke to $79.62 as traders sold on reports that Iran, Oman and the United States were moving toward a workable shipping arrangement through the Strait of Hormuz.

Thursday changed the tone. WTI bounced after Iran fired on a vessel near Oman and President Trump rejected terms tied to reviving the June Iran ceasefire agreement. The market stopped trading a Hormuz reopening and started trading the fact that there is still no final deal.

The week is not over, but the setup is clear. WTI sold a corridor that has not opened. The physical supply data does not support the size of the weekly break.

Iran and Oman Have an Understanding, Not a Reopening

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards announced an agreement with Oman over control and revenue sharing in the Strait of Hormuz. That was enough to start the selling because the market immediately priced in more Middle East barrels reaching buyers.

Then the details showed up. A senior Iranian source said the agreement was still not final. Iran wants the regional war ended, sanctions relief, an end to the port blockade and compensation before it allows ships to use the central channel.

The United States is not signing off on those conditions. Trump said Thursday that Washington was not returning to the prior ceasefire terms.

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