Economist, Professor Godfred Bokpin, says Ghana’s US$1.9 billion decline in gross international reserves does not present an immediate threat to the economy, although he cautions that the development exposes vulnerabilities in the country’s external position.
His comments come amid renewed pressure on Ghana’s external buffers, despite strong export earnings during the first half of 2026.
Professor Bokpin feels the development is concerning, particularly because Ghana’s reserve accumulation has been heavily supported by gold exports.
Speaking in an interview, he pointed to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East as one of the factors that could weigh on Ghana’s gold export flows.
“There should not be any panic necessarily, because we still have considerable level of reserves to be able to fight the pressure.”
However, Professor Bokpin says the Bank of Ghana may need to moderate the extent to which it intervenes in the foreign exchange market to preserve the reserves.
The latest Bank of Ghana data show that gross international reserves fell from US$12.94 billion in June to US$11.07 billion at the end of August 2026.
The decline has reduced Ghana’s import cover to 4.2 months, from 5.7 months at the end of 2025.
But the Professor of Finance at the University of Ghana Business School, argues that the country’s dependence on a single major commodity for foreign exchange earnings creates a significant vulnerability whenever global developments disrupt gold exports or prices.
He also expects demand for foreign exchange to increase in the final quarter of the year, as businesses and government typically ramp up spending ahead of the Christmas period.
He warns that market participants could respond to expectations of weaker gold export receipts by increasing their demand for foreign exchange, potentially putting additional pressure on the central bank’s reserves.
Professor Bokpin says the situation therefore requires careful management, particularly as Ghana enters a period of traditionally higher demand for foreign exchange.
“And they know that we have limited reserves. So it’s just about managing it. And I agree with the governor when he indicated a couple of weeks ago that we expect some level of depreciation of the currency, also because of the uncertainty in anticipation of government injecting more liquidity into the economy as they ramp up the year.”
The Bank of Ghana has also identified slower gold shipments, rising external payments and developments in the Middle East as risks to the country’s external position.
