The government’s new revenue mobilisation measures, including artificial intelligence-driven customs administration and tax reforms, have yet to translate into significant improvements in revenue performance, the Centre for Policy Scrutiny (CPS) has disclosed.
The policy think tank said Ghana missed its first-half 2026 revenue target by GH¢1.4 billion despite the introduction of measures aimed at improving tax compliance and strengthening domestic revenue mobilisation.
Presenting the Centre’s assessment of the 2026 Mid-Year Budget Review on Tuesday, July 28, Executive Director of CPS, Dr. Adu Owusu Sarkodie, said the underperformance raises concerns about the effectiveness of recent interventions introduced by the government to increase revenue collections.
According to the Centre, total revenue and grants for the first half of 2026 amounted to GH¢96.1 billion, representing 98.5 per cent of the budget target and resulting in a shortfall of about GH¢1.4 billion.
Dr. Sarkodie said although the gap was marginal in percentage terms, it pointed to continuing weaknesses in domestic revenue mobilisation.
“Revenue and grants underperformed by GH¢1.4 billion in the first half of 2026. Although the shortfall was marginal in percentage terms, it points to persistent weaknesses in domestic revenue mobilisation despite the implementation of new compliance measures,” he said.
The CPS identified Value Added Tax (VAT), petroleum receipts, excise duties and import duties as some of the key revenue areas that fell below their respective targets during the period.
The Centre said the shortfalls were recorded despite government efforts to modernise revenue collection through initiatives such as the deployment of artificial intelligence in customs administration and the Modified Taxation Scheme.
“The implementation of revenue-enhancing measures, including AI-driven customs administration and the Modified Taxation Scheme, has yet to produce significant improvements in revenue performance,” Dr. Sarkodie said.
The think tank said the limited impact of the reforms suggests the government may need to review the effectiveness of its revenue mobilisation strategy and identify additional measures to improve compliance and expand the tax base.
It argued that while digital tools and administrative reforms could strengthen tax collection systems, they must be supported by effective implementation and stronger enforcement mechanisms to generate meaningful fiscal gains.
The CPS also attributed part of the revenue challenge to weaker-than-expected external inflows, particularly foreign-financed project loans.
According to the Centre, only 15.8 per cent of projected foreign project loans for the first half of 2026 had been realised, limiting resources available for capital expenditure programmes.
Dr. Sarkodie urged the government to pursue a more sustainable approach to fiscal consolidation by improving revenue generation rather than relying mainly on expenditure reductions.
“The government has used an expenditure-led fiscal consolidation. There is also the need to embark on revenue-led fiscal consolidation without overburdening the taxpayer,” he said.
The Centre recommended strengthening tax administration, broadening the tax base and improving compliance to create a more reliable revenue system capable of supporting government programmes.
The assessment forms part of CPS’s broader review of the 2026 Mid-Year Budget, which also raised concerns about inconsistencies in some fiscal figures presented in the government’s budget update and the reliance on lower-than-planned expenditure to achieve fiscal targets.
