We continue to watch Libya unravel as rival power centers attempt to reassert territorial and institutional control, but international oil majors are re-engaging nonetheless, and analysts like to opine that their big oil money could help stabilize the country.
That is a possibility; however, the reverse is currently more likely unless Benghazi and Tripoli find a way to split the spoils (as the only thing that would prevent another civil war).
The Tripoli-based Government of National Unity (GNU), led by interim Libyan PM Dbeibah, is now in a direct standoff with the Special Deterrence Force (RADA) militia group, which it has accused of sheltering over 120 wanted individuals, including an ICC-indicted commander. In a public ultimatum, Dbeibah has demanded that RADA relinquish control over Mitiga Airport and its adjoining prison facilities. RADA has responded by declaring a “war of survival,” signaling a willingness to escalate militarily if challenged.
This new confrontation, which comes after a resurgence of violent militia clashes in Tripoli in May, tells us that Dbeibah is losing his grip on the GNU. RADA is not a militia that is traditionally aligned with the Haftar camp, Dbeibah’s eastern rival. Instead, this is a sign of Dbeibah’s weakening control and his dwindling ability to enforce chain-of-command. His call for RADA to vacate Mitiga is not a confident assertion of power, it’s a provocation that risks showing how little control he has.
