From Monday, January 19, through Thursday, January 22, 2026, WTI crude oil moved on geopolitical noise, U.S. inventory surprises, and shifting demand assumptions.
The early week brought geopolitical headlines that traders briefly entertained, but by mid-week, the story was all about supply-side pressure – specifically, those U.S. inventory numbers that just wouldn’t quit. The week became an exercise in risk recalibration as headline risks failed to deliver actual supply disruptions.
Late Thursday, Light Crude Oil Futures are trading $59.60, up $0.26 or +0.44%.
Iran Headlines Spark Interest, Then Fizzle
Monday kicked off with modest support from Iran-related developments. Reports of political unrest inside Iran got traders thinking about potential export disruptions—after all, Iran’s a key OPEC producer and matters for Asian crude flows. But the market’s response? Muted at best. Traders quickly sized up the situation and concluded the protests weren’t touching production or exports. Speculation about U.S. military involvement evaporated fast, killing any chance for Iranian headlines to sustain a meaningful risk premium. Geopolitical support stayed thin, and buying interest never materialized.
Russia-Ukraine Diplomacy Deflates the Premium
Later in the week, Russia and Ukraine developments entered the chat, and not in a bullish way. Talk of possible progress toward negotiations between the two countries helped soften crude prices.
