The week ending January 9, 2026, was anything but ordinary for crude oil markets. As of late Thursday, WTI was trading at $58.42, up $1.10 or 1.92% for the week so far, with a weekly high of $58.87 and a low of $55.76.
While these numbers might suggest relative stability, the forces at play beneath the surface tell a far more dramatic story—one that could reshape global energy markets for years to come.
The Venezuela Shock
The single biggest story this week was President Trump’s military operation that resulted in the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on Friday, January 3. U.S. special forces seized Maduro and his wife from their compound in Caracas and flew them to New York to face drug trafficking charges. Trump announced the U.S. would “run the country” during a transition period and invited American oil companies to invest billions to rebuild Venezuela’s infrastructure.
Venezuela sits on roughly 303 billion barrels of proven reserves—the largest in the world—yet currently produces only around 800,000 barrels per day, less than 1% of global output. The market’s reaction was surprisingly muted. Rather than spiking, oil prices actually dipped early in the week as traders weighed competing scenarios. If Venezuela stabilizes and sanctions lift, those reserves could eventually flood an already oversupplied market. Conversely, political instability could disrupt current production, though rebuilding would require years and tens of billions in investment.
