Upside Ahead for Oil Prices as Supply Comes Into Focus
Oil prices climbed this week as OPEC+ committed to controlling supply while Trump continued his efforts to choke Iran’s oil industry.
Friday, March 21st, 2025
Buoyed by Trump’s continued pressure on Iran and OPEC+’s renewed efforts to send prices higher ahead of its April meeting by committing to additional overcompensation plans, ICE Brent is creeping back closer to the $75 per barrel mark, posting its second weekly gain. The oil markets have become desensitized to US Federal Reserve meetings and with the awkward implementation of the 30-day ban on energy strikes between Russia and Ukraine, there might be further upside ahead for crude.
OPEC+ Rolls Out New Compensation Plans. Confronted with continuous overproduction by its leading members, OPEC+ issued a new compensation plan with voluntary cuts lasting until June 2026, seeing 300-400,000 b/d output curtailments over the summer months with Iraq forced to cut the most.
US Sanctions First Chinese Teapot Refiner. Ramping up the pressure on buyers of Iranian oil, the US Treasury Department announced new sanctions on entities linked to Iranian oil trade, adding a Chinese refiner (Shandong-based Shouguang Luqing Petrochemical) to the SDN list for the first time ever.
Oil Traders Become the New Drillers. Global trading house Vitol agreed to buy stakes in West African oil and gas assets operated by Italy’s oil major ENI (BIT:ENI) for $1.65 billion, taking a 30% minority stake in the largest oil discovery of 2021, the Baleine field in Ivory Coast, as well as in Congolese LNG assets.
Kazakhstan Drops Energy Minister Amid OPEC+ Rows. Kazakhstan’s energy minister Almasadam Satkaliyev will stand down from his role as the Asian country has been increasingly pressured by OPEC+ peers to comply with its production quota, seeing output from the Tengiz field soar to 1 million b/d.
Gold Soars Again on Fed’s Doomsaying. Gold prices rose to another all-time high this week, surpassing the $3,050 per ounce threshold, right after the US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell hinted at only two interest rate cuts in 2025 and reiterated that the Fed is in no hurry to adjust borrowing costs.
Guerrillas Blow Up Colombia’s Pipelines. Colombia’s two main pipelines connecting oil fields in the Andean foothills with the country’s Atlantic coast were bombed this week, presumably by Marxist guerillas, with the Cano Limon-Covenas pipeline already paralyzed due to a prior bomb attack.
Trump Mulls U-Turn on Venezuela Sanctions. Having met top executives from the US oil industry, US President Donald Trump is reportedly considering a plan to extend Chevron’s (NYSE:CVX) sanctions waiver in Venezuela, instead rolling out tariffs for non-US buyers of Venezuelan oil.
Norway’s Equinor Rolls Back Climate Ambition. Norway’s state oil firm Equinor (NYSE:EQNR) lowered its renewable energy mandates, scrapping a previous 50% capital expenditure target for low-carbon projects by 2030 and lowering its renewable energy target to 10-12 GW instead of 12-16 GW previously.
Niger Expels Overpaid Chinese Oil Bosses. The African nation of Niger expelled three Chinese oil executives working at the Agadem project run by state oil firm Petrochina (SHA:601857) for allegedly earning too much, citing an eightfold difference between Nigerien employees and their Chinese bosses.
European Gas Surges on Pipeline Attack. Europe’s benchmark TTF natural gas futures rose to €45 per MWh this week after an alleged attack by Ukraine’s Armed Forces on the Sudzha gas metering station in Russia, greatly sapping the possibility of Russian pipeline gas flows resuming to Europe.
Trump Uses Wartime Powers to Boost US Mining. US President Donald Trump has tapped the 1950 Defense Production Act to ramp up production of critical minerals, facilitating the financing and regulatory support of upcoming domestic projects as 70% of rare earth imports still come from China.
Carlyle-Energean Upstream Deal Collapses. A $945 million deal that would see Mediterranean driller Energean (LON:ENOG) sell its gas assets in Egypt, Italy, and Croatia to US equity fund Carlyle has fallen through due to a lack of government approvals from Italy and Egypt before the March 20 deadline.
Saudi Aramco Continues 2025 Retail Expansion. After buying a fuel retailer in the Phillippines, Saudi national oil company Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) agreed to buy Latin American retail firm Primax, which has operations in Peru, Colombia, and Ecuador, for an undisclosed fee.
Europe’s Largest Airport Halts Operations After Blaze. A fire at an adjacent electrical substation debilitated London’s Heathrow Airport, forcing Europe’s busiest airport (84 million passengers in 2024) to shut down altogether on March 21, with the airport operator warning of further disruptions ahead.