The growing threat of military rule: Democracy in Africa, quo vadis?

Democracy in Sub-Saharan Africa is under serious threat as military leaders continue to entrench their rule, using a familiar playbook of extended transitions and power grabs. The rise of young, elite military officers such as Guinea’s Mamady Doumbouya, Mali’s Assimi Goïta, and Chad’s Mahamat Déby is a stark reminder of the region’s turbulent history with military rule, and it bodes poorly for the future of civilian governance.

A couple of years ago, concerns were raised about Doumbouya’s potential to replicate the long transitions of his coup-inspiring predecessors. His age, admiration for past military strongmen like Ghana’s Jerry Rawlings, and reluctance to establish a clear path to democracy have raised alarm bells. As his 39-month transitional period nears its end, the question looms: will Doumbouya willingly hand over power, or will he, like Rawlings, extend his grip on the country for years?

Doumbouya’s peers, Goïta and Déby, follow a similar trajectory. Goïta recently extended military rule in Mali after a so-called national dialogue, while Déby has cemented his position as Chad’s president despite opposition cries of a coup. These leaders, trained in elite military units, appear set to repeat the tactics used by coup leaders before them: promising reforms and rewritten constitutions to placate international observers while consolidating power behind the scenes.

The wave of military takeovers in the region since 2020 — across countries like Mali, Guinea, Chad, and more — reflects a troubling pattern. Coupled with several sitting presidents altering constitutions to extend their mandates, democracy is facing an existential crisis in Africa. These setbacks overshadow the democratic progress made in recent years, such as successful elections and the peaceful transition of power in some states.

Public sentiment, however, is growing increasingly weary. While Afrobarometer surveys show that two-thirds of Africans still prefer democracy over other forms of government, support is waning. In countries like South Africa and Mali, enthusiasm for democracy has plummeted, and opposition to military rule has weakened. What’s more alarming is that over half of Africans are now willing to accept military takeovers if civilian leaders are perceived to abuse their power.

This erosion of democratic support is largely tied to dissatisfaction with governance. Fewer than half of Africans believe their countries are truly democratic, and the number of citizens satisfied with democracy has dropped sharply, even in countries once hailed as beacons of democratic hope. In places like Botswana, Mauritius, and South Africa, dissatisfaction has grown as the quality of elections and accountability of leaders come under question.

The worrying trend of declining faith in democracy is driven by more than just economic struggles. Citizens are increasingly disillusioned with political corruption, weak judicial oversight, and the inability of elected governments to uphold the rule of law. As this discontent deepens, the military and authoritarian leaders exploit the opportunity to offer themselves as the solution — even if it means democracy takes a backseat.

For democracy to survive in Africa, it is crucial to restore trust in the ability of governments to deliver accountable and transparent leadership. Without this, the region’s democratic project risks slipping further into the shadows of military strongmen and autocratic rule, erasing decades of hard-won progress. The stakes have never been higher, and the future of democracy in Sub-Saharan Africa hangs in the balance.