Split-Second Risk Analysis Of Ecowas & Niger
Unless what we hear is only hot air, there are five unavoidable errors and pangs likely to attend the arrows pointing at Niger.
The intention to use the Ecowas standby military to remove the military junta in Niger could have a boomerang effect. This may be explained to be giving the military the feeling that it is the most powerful tool in deciding what a government becomes and who can be in government at any given time.
Of course, the civilian leaders are also the commanders-in-chief of the armed forces but then the hysteria in the use of the military by the civilians only goes to fuel the perception that the civilians are weaklings and the military the superior force.
Ecowas Political Commissioner has said that the organization can go to war without authorization from the United Nations. That inks deep into the pockets of precedents that fell foul of international law. The law clearly states that the UN overrides all regional groupings, more so when only the UN Security Council is the only authority vested with the power to determine what constitutes a threat to global peace and to declare war.
The Ecowas official who alluded to Russia’s unilateral declaration of war on Ukraine, and other such wars waged by the United States of America in Iraq, or Afghanistan, must know that these are simply the actuation of the powers granted by the UN Charter to the permanent members of the Security Council. Ecowas is a second, third, or fourth fiddle to the global body.
The violation of the territorial integrity and political sovereignty of Niger in the event of an attack on Niger will be obvious.
The declaration of war and actual boots on the ground against Niger will definitely spark a chain reaction. Aside from the casualties on both sides, there could be an upsurge in the incidence of terrorism as jihadists might exploit the mayhem to their advantage. Catastrophic consequences of war include distortions in production and trade as well as the outflow of migrants who may dive in all directions.
Algeria, one of the northern neighbours of Niger has expressed an affront to any Ecowas military operation in Niger because of the unavoidable influx of refugees and has therefore called for a diplomatic solution to the crisis. Other military governments in Africa appear to be on the side of the junta in Niger so the attack could have a pushback on several fronts.
The greatest risk for West Africa, in considering a military response to a military government, is the covert war on behalf of the superpowers. Should the United States and Russia weigh into this, the entire subregion will become a full-scale theatre of some of their operations, where munitions are involved.