Revenue growth to slowdown to GH¢209.3bn in 2025; T-bills will not be restructured – IC Research

The country’s total revenue for 2025 is projected at GH¢209.3 billion, about 17.2% of Gross Domestic Product, IC Research has revealed.

This will represent a slower growth of 16.1% as against 33.8% year-on-year estimated for 2024.

On the spending side, it stressed that total expenditure (on commitment basis) is projected at GH¢240.9 billion, about 19.8% of GDP in 2025.

This will represent a sharper slowdown in expenditure growth to 10.4% year-on-year (versus +32.2% year-on-year estimated for 2024.

“While the International Monetary Fund explained that the expenditure forecast assumes full debt restructuring, the Fund also underscored the need to strengthen expenditure controls and implement enhanced fiscal responsibility framework. Within this context, we view the projected drop in expenditure-to-GDP ratio to 19.8% (from 20.7% in 2024) amidst a broadly flat projected revenue-to-GDP ratio of 17.2% as indicating a consolidation based on post-election year expenditure controls”, it pointed out.

T-bills Will Not Undergo Restructuring

Meanwhile, IC Securities, says, treasury bills remain safe for short-term investment and liquidity management and therefore it will not undergo restructuring.

This follows government position that it does not intend to restructure T-bills as these securities are not part of the Debt Sustainability Analyses conducted for the comprehensive debt restructuring programme, which is nearing the end.

“In view of this reassurances and given our belief that T-bills are sacrosanct for financial stability, we we reiterate our view that Ghanaian T-bills remain safe for short-term investment and liquidity management”.

Since the country defaulted on its loans in 2022, the government has been borrowing heavily on the domestic treasury market. This fuelled speculation that the short-term instruments will in the future be restructured.