The Institute for Energy Security (IES) predicts petrol and diesel prices to stay the same or decrease over the next two weeks of October 2024.
In contrast, Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG) prices are likely to rise slightly unless there are external policy changes.
“Following the mixed reactions in the international fuel market during the closing weeks of September [2024], gasoil and LPG recorded price hikes of approximately 1.5% and 3.83%, respectively, while gasoline [diesel] experienced a decline in price. Additionally, the local cedi has seen a marginal depreciation against the U.S. dollar, trading about 0.49% lower than its counterparts. Given these developments in both the local currency and foreign fuel markets, the local market is expected to experience slowed price movements for liquid fuels, reflecting a degree of stability”.
On world oil market, crude oil prices have remained in the $70 per barrel range in mid-September 2024, contrary to earlier predictions of exceeding $100 per barrel.
Market opinions vary, with OPEC+ expecting growth fueled by Chinese imports, while the International Energy Agency (IEA) has consistently revised its growth forecasts downward. The IEA’s latest estimate for 2024 global oil demand growth is a modest 900,000 barrels per day, largely due to slowing Chinese consumption, which saw growth in the first half of 2024 at only 800,000 barrel per day year-on-year—the slowest pace since 2020.
In contrast, OPEC forecasts Chinese oil demand growth of over 600,000 barrel per day, adjusting its estimate from 700,000 barrel per day to 653,000 barrel per day.
Local Fuel Market Performance
The prices of liquid petroleum products in the local fuel market continue to fall in the second half of September 2024.
All Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) tracked in the second pricing window reduced their prices per litre for liquid fuels, specifically petrol (GH₵0.99) and diesel (GH₵0.44). LPG price went up by GH₵0.50 per kilogramme.
The Institute for Energy Security’s computation of the national average price, based on sampled petroleum price data from OMCs in the second pricing window of September 2024, shows that petrol and diesel were sold at GH₵13.21 and GH₵13.69 per litre, respectively, while LPG was priced at GH₵16.43 per kilogramme.
In the second pricing window in September 2024, several Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) reduced their petroleum product prices at the pumps from September 16, 2024.
Market leader GOIL sold a litre of petrol for GH₵14.49, down from GH₵14.70.
Diesel prices also decreased to GH₵14.49 per litre, a drop from the previous price of GH₵14.70 set on September 2, 2024.
This reduction marked one of the most significant decreases in petrol prices in recent times.