OPEC+ Delays Output Increase to April 2025, Extends Cuts Into 2026

The OPEC+ producers who are reducing output by 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) have decided to delay the beginning of the gradual easing of the cuts to April 2025, OPEC+ delegates told Argus on Thursday as the ministers were holding their online video conference.

The alliance has also decided to extend the collective group cut by one year until the end of 2026, Amena Bakr, Senior Research Analyst at Energy Intelligence, reported while the meeting was ongoing, citing delegates.

There are also a lot of discussions about the importance of compliance, according to Bakr.

Under the previous OPEC+ plans, the group was set to begin unwinding the cuts in January 2025, with an initial 180,000-bpd increase in production, and gradually return all the supply by the end of next year.

Now the alliance is not only pushing back the beginning of the supply additions by three months, but it is also giving another year for the full unwinding of the restrictions.

The three-month delay to the supply additions was largely expected by the market and probably already priced in.

But the additional year in which the OPEC+ producers will be restricted by some form of production cuts could be interpreted as OPEC and OPEC+’s acknowledgment that weaker-than-expected demand growth can’t absorb all the supply returning in 2025.

Oil prices turned negative, following various reports of a three-month delay to the unwinding of the cuts and the additional year of restrictions until the end of 2026.

Just before the OPEC+ meeting began, oil was trading slightly higher.

After reports started emerging that the cuts would last a year more than originally planned, both benchmarks turned negative. The U.S. benchmark, WTI Crude, was down 0.34% at $68.28 as of 7:24 a.m. ET, while the OPEC+ meeting was still ongoing. The international benchmark, Brent Crude, traded down 0.22% at $72.11.