Oil Prices Remain Rangebound Despite Dramatic Week

Despite a whirlwind news week that saw Donald Trump regain the U.S. presidency and a hurricane hit the Gulf of Mexico, oil prices have been largely rangebound this week.

Friday, November 8th, 2024

The US presidential election has dominated global newsfeeds this week, triggering widespread speculation on how a new Trump administration would implement its election promises in the first weeks and months of its tenure. Meanwhile, Hurricane Rafael, potentially the last hurricane of this Atlantic season, has temporarily shut down some 400,000 b/d of production but its weakening outlook will most probably spare the 4 million b/d of oil output that is still in its way. Oil prices remain rangebound, with ICE Brent trading around the $75 per barrel mark in recent sessions.

Hurricane Rafael Forces Gulf Platform Evacuations. Ahead of Hurricane Rafael passing through the US Gulf of Mexico, offshore operators evacuated 17 producing platforms as the 17th named storm of this hurricane season threatens some 4 million b/d of production capacity, even if gradually weakening.

Iraq Proposes New Kurdistan Deal. Iraq’s federal government reached out to the semi-autonomous Kurdish authorities with the proposal of doubling the amount it pays for the KRG’s oil production to $16 per barrel, however further talks are expected as this is still $10 per barrel less than what Erbil wants.

Iran Fears Worsening Gasoline Shortages. Iran’s new government has warned of an impending gasoline shortage despite an existing gas rationing system, as demand for the fuel reached 750,000 b/d lately and the domestic refining system can only churn out 670,000 b/d, requiring additional refining capacity.

Africa Mulls Refinery Expansions. Buoyed by the relative success of Nigeria’s Dangote refinery, Gabon announced its plans to build a 60,000 b/d refinery in Port Gentil, with the capacity of the plant exceeding the African country’s 46,000 b/d domestic demand and eyeing regional exports as well.

Germany Explores U-Turn on Nuclear Policy. In an almost complete reversal of Angela Merkel’s energy policy, Germany’s conservative parties CDU and CSU have called the country’s 2023 nuclear shutdown ‘ideologically wrong’ and advocate for a feasibility study into the reactivation of idled nuclear plants.

Europe Cools on Past Petrochemical Ambition. Polish state-controlled oil refiner Orlen (WSE:PKN) said it would not continue with its $13 billion Olefins petrochemical project in its current form, one of the largest in Europe, adding it would optimize, suspend or terminate the investment due to low profitability.

BP Divests Dutch Retail Network. The UK’s oil major BP (NYSE:BP) is preparing to sell all 310 of its petrol stations in the Netherlands, citing high maintenance costs of the system and limited growth potential, expecting to finalize the divestment towards the end of 2025 whilst keeping its Rotterdam refinery.

New EU Commission Eyes 2027 End to Russian Gas. The new Energy Commissioner of the European Union will seek to end Russian gas imports into the bloc ahead of the assumed 2027 target, albeit a non-binding one, as Europe is still getting 18% of its needs from Russia via the Ukraine transit route.

India Calls for More Term LNG Deals. India’s state-run gas firm Gail will add 5-6 mtpa of long-term LNG supply contracts to its portfolio by the end of this decade, taking its total import needs to 20-21 mtpa, as the Modi government set a mandate to increase the share of gas in generation from 6% to 15% by 2030.

Alaska’s Exploration Activity Dies Down. The Biden administration plans to offer the minimal possible acreage in a Congress-mandated oil and gas lease sale, offering only 400,000 acres, after delaying the auction for several years, with Alaska’s drillers now hoping for a Trump-era leasing revival.

Miners Want Trump to Speed Up Mining Permits. Mining giant Rio Tinto (NYSE:RIO) called on US president-elect Donald Trump to speed up the permitting process for new copper projects, referring to its Resolution copper mine which could supply a quarter of the US’ copper needs but  remains stalled.

Tanzania Lures Investors with Huge Licensing Round. The African nation of Tanzania plans to offer 24 oil and gas exploration blocks in its 5th licensing round, to be launched next year, believing that it could entice oil majors to drill its offshore waters despite the relatively unfavorable Petroleum Act of 2015.

Trump’s Re-election Could Revive Keystone XL. President Trump’s return to power has brought the topic of reviving the stalled 830,000 b/d Keystone XL pipeline, intended to carry Canadian oil from Alberta, with operator TC Energy dropping its $15 billion claim against the US government.