Crude oil prices looked on track for a third weekly loss in a row, pressured by the perception of weaker-than-desired Chinese demand.
Even so, oil made some gains earlier in the week, mostly on substantial inventory draws as reported by the American Petroleum Institute and the Energy Information Administration. The latest push for oil prices came from the U.S. Commerce Department, which reported GDP growth of 2.8% for the second quarter, attributing it to higher consumer spending and business investment.
More U.S. economic data is due out later today when the Fed will report personal consumption expenditure data—the inflation metric that the U.S. central bank favors. Meanwhile, prices are getting some support from expectations that the PCE data would be positive, strengthening hopes of an interest rate cut in September.
On the other hand, Goldman Sachs analysts said this week that weak demand and slower GDP growth next year could shave some $11 off oil prices—if the U.S. imposes new tariffs on imported goods. The decline could deepen to $19 per barrel, the analysts said, if the Fed delays rate cuts until after 2025 on persistently high inflation.
Interestingly, some oil market watchers appear to be bracing for more OPEC supply coming online in the second half of the year. That’s according to Bloomberg, which said in a report earlier today that market observers were “split over whether the producer cartel will ease their curbs next quarter.”
OPEC did indeed suggest it might begin to roll back some production curbs but it made a point of clarifying this would only happen if prices are where OPEC wants them to be. With prices sliding, it is quite unlikely that the group would bring back any supply, since that would only serve to pressure prices even more, betraying the very purpose of the cuts.