Libya’s Refining Capacity Set to Soar to 400,000 bpd

Libya is planning to boost its crude refining capacity from the current 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 400,000 bpd, Libya’s Minister of Oil and Gas Khalifa Abdulsadek has announced.

“To maximize exports, you need to keep an eye on the local demand first, as it is increasing for power generation,’’ the minister said.

According to Chairman of Libya’s National Oil Corporation Masoud Sulaiman, Libya plans to increase oil output from 1.4 mb/d currently to 2 mb/d in 2028. However, ramping output to that level will require considerable capital outlays: Abdulsadek estimates that Libya needs between $3 billion and $4 billion to reach its intermediate goal of oil production rate of 1.6 mb/d, adding that a new license bidding round is expected to be approved by the cabinet before the end of January. The Libyan economy relies heavily on oil, with fossil fuels accounting for more than 95% of its economic output.

“There is momentum in reconstruction and this can only be achieved by increasing the production,” Abdulsadek said.

Libya is not the only OPEC producer targeting higher production: Kuwait has revealed ambitions to nearly double its oil output over the next decade.  Speaking at last year’s CERAWeek by S&P Global conference, Sheikh Nawaf al-Sabah, CEO of Kuwait Petroleum Corp., revealed that the country plans to ramp up crude production from ~2.4 million barrels of crude per day currently to over 4 mb/d by 2035 by cooperating with  international oil majors. According to Sabah, the emirate has lifting costs onshore of just $10/b but has pumped the brakes on drilling due to OPEC+ production quotas. Kuwait expects the capacity additions to come from the Neutral Zone it shares with Saudi Arabia as well as its domestic fields.

Kuwait is a wealthy petroleum-based economy and the fifth richest country in the world by gross national income per capita. It’s OPEC’s 5th largest producer, and is home to 101 billion barrels in proven oil reserves, the 7th largest in the world. Indeed, Kuwait’s oil reserves are considerably bigger than the U.S.’ ~70 billion barrels. Unfortunately, similar to many OPEC producers, Kuwait’s economy is too reliant on oil.