Libya’s Oil Problems Are Far From Over

Libya’s exports remain blocked, and while there were some reports that some oil was getting out, it was largely for domestic use and some ships have been allowed to load from storage.

The majority remains hijacked by a new push to take control by two rival governments (Benghazi and Tripoli).

On Friday, the Tripoli government’s interior minister (Imad Trabelsi) let it be known that meetings had been held over the past 48 hours with “security forces” (read: various militias).

That could easily lead to an armed run on the Central Bank, to forcibly remove Central Bank governor Al-Kabir, who appears to be shifting alliances from Tripoli PM Dbeibah to General Haftar in the east but who has since reportedly fled the country.

The Tripoli interior minister denied there were any plans afoot to take the Central Bank by force. They are holding out now for the result of UN talks with representatives from each rival government, but we do not see a consensus being reached at this time.

Last week, Libya’s total oil output was reported to have been halved, but as of the time of writing, it is unclear how much Libya is producing or exporting right now.

The markets are playing a guessing game, and turning their focus back to China demand, OPEC cuts, and various diverse bank forecasts for oil prices this year and next.

On the Israel-Gaza front, peace talks are getting nowhere, with Hamas killing six hostages and now demanding more Palestinians.