Lessons from the re-election of Donald Trump
I voted for VP Kamala Harris. I appreciated her concerns and that of many about the future of America’s democracy. After all, as the exit polls showed, seven out of ten (73%) Americans feel the country’s democracy is threatened. In addition, she committed to continuing the administration’s fight to secure debt relief for borrowers burdened by federal student loan debt.
The Biden-Harris administration has made efforts, unsuccessfully though, to provide relief to Americans burdened by federal student loans but have been met with stiff resistance from Republicans. So far, the efforts have been blocked by the courts. Most importantly, I preferred her political temperament.
However, I am also not surprised that she lost. I am surprised at the margin. The polls showed a very tight race with most pundits asserting the election was going to be one of the most competitive in US history. As the election drew closer, I regularly said to myself and to close friends that a Trump victory would not surprise me. The Real Clear Politics (RCP) average of all polls, gave Mr Trump a slight edge, especially in the race for two hundred and seventy (270) electoral college votes.
The postmortem will ascribe various reasons to the re-election of Trump. I have read everything from racism, sexism, and irrational voters, to the economy and other cultural issues. Whatever reasons explain the re-election of Mr Trump, there are two important lessons to learn from this election, in my humble opinion.
What Does This Tell Us?
Voters’ economic pinch points matter. How people feel about the economy truly matters, even in the face of data that may suggest otherwise. As David Goldman of CNN wrote in an op-ed piece “Economic sentiment doesn’t always match up nicely with data that shows the economy is adding jobs, consumer spending is growing and gross domestic product — the broadest measure of the economy — continues to boom. When you pay through the nose for a cup of coffee or when you can’t afford to buy a home, those data are meaningless: You feel shut out of the American Dream.”
His point is simple- how voters feel economically on a day-to-day basis matters. When the networks began sharing the results of the exit polls, I knew immediately that VP Harris was in trouble. Why? Here is what Americans said about the economic pinch points they were feeling – a) 68 per cent said the condition of the economy was “not so good or poor”; b) only 24 per cent said compared to four years ago, their family’s financial situation is “better”; c) 75 per cent said inflation had caused them and their families “moderate to severe” hardships, and d) 73 per cent said they were ‘dissatisfied or angry” at the way things were going in the country.
These are not the sentiments an incumbent party can easily defy and win an election. Joe Biden, in my opinion, would have lost this election, and in his absence, VP Harris had to either a) pay the price for the economic pinch points being felt by voters, or b) find ways to convince voters that she had the answers to their economic pain without appearing to throw the current administration under the bus.
Deriding voters is not the answer. It is very tempting, given what many disapprove about Mr Trump’s politics, to question why millions of voters continue to find his candidacy attractive. I am guilty of that as I constantly found myself wondering in 2016 the attraction to his candidacy compared to my preferred candidate Hillary Clinton. The biggest mistake Democrats can make, in trying to make sense of this election, is to describe voters as “irrational.” The rational voter, in my opinion, is one who a) comes to an election with certain interests and expectations; b), searches for the candidate they believe shares those interests and believe can meet those expectations; c) picks a candidate and votes accordingly; and d) feels satisfied that they made the right choice.
Sometimes that candidate is one from a) a party they will always vote for regardless; b) a candidate they have voted for before; or c) a candidate they are willing to try for the first time. We may believe that their expectations are unrealistic. However, in the material moment when the voter is making the decision, it is driven by a strong belief that their interests and expectations will be met. It does not make them irrational because we do not share their interests or expectations. It simply makes all voters differently motivated.
For me, the task for The Democratic Party is this – a) an honest introspection; b) strategising to win back control of Congress (Senate is lost, House is yet to be decided) in the 2026 midterm election; and c) strategising to win the 2028 election.
The writer is the Project Director of the Democracy Project