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Is $80 Oil Here to Stay?

The global oil market entered uncharted territory this week as the United States tightened its grip on Russian oil exports through sweeping sanctions.

These new measures, targeting 183 oil tankers and major producers such as Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegaz, are poised to strip up to 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) from international markets.

Designed to cut off a critical revenue stream for Moscow, the sanctions also add a new layer of pressure to an already fragile supply chain. Freight costs surged in response, creating logistical challenges for major importers like China and India.

As traders assess the fallout, the sanctions are driving concerns about higher prices, tighter supplies, and the potential for extended market volatility.

U.S. Sanctions and the Ripple Effect on Global Supply

The U.S. sanctions, unveiled this week, aim to restrict Russia’s ability to transport and sell crude oil on international markets. By blacklisting dozens of tankers and key producers, these actions are expected to disrupt Russian oil exports significantly. Analysts project a potential removal of up to 700,000 bpd from the global supply, further constraining already tight market conditions.

Freight markets quickly reflected these disruptions. Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) rates from the Middle East to China surged by 39%, while shipping costs from Russia’s Kozmino port to North China more than doubled.

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