Gold production from top ten companies to recover in second-half, says GlobalData

If production guidances are met, the collective production of the top ten global gold producers is expected to recover by about 13.5% in the second half of the year, compared with the first half, says data analytics and consulting company GlobalData.

The London-headquartered company notes that total production is expected to be 14.9-million ounces in the second half of the year, compared with 13.1-million ounces in the first half.

GlobalData has identified Newmont, Barrick Gold, Polyus, AngloGold Ashanti, Kinross, Gold Fields, Newcrest, Agnico Eagle, Kirkland Lake Gold and Polymetal International Production as the world’s top ten gold producers by volume for the first half of this year.

GlobalData associate project manager Vinneth Bajaj comments that the companies saw a collective 1.1% drop in production in the first half of the year, compared with the first half of 2020, owing to lower ore grades, the sale of assets, reduced mill throughput and lower recoveries.

He says that while production is expected to recover in the second half, overall output for the full-year will remain relatively flat, at between 27-million and 28-million ounces.

Of the top ten gold producers, the highest production increase in the first half of the year came from Agnico Eagle, owing to increased mining and milling rates, as well as higher grades at the Meadowbank Complex.

The company also saw higher throughput at its Meliadine site.

Meanwhile, the companies within the top ten producers that saw the most significant falls in production during the first half were AngloGold (a 6.1% decrease), Barrick (a 12.9% decrease) and Newcrest (a 7.1% decrease).

The collective output from these companies declined to 4.4-million ounces from nearly five-million ounces in the first half of 2020.

“While AngloGold’s first-quarter performance was affected by operational challenges such as low ore grades, lower mill throughput and increased operational costs, its second-quarter performance was impacted by both the pandemic and the suspension of underground mining activities at Obuasi, in Ghana, following a fall-of-ground incident in May,” Bajaj notes.

Meanwhile, Barrick’s output was impacted owing to the transition of its Goldstrike autoclave from acid to alkaline ore, a drop in the amount of ore processed at the Carlin roasters during the first quarter of the year, and a failure at one of the two mills at the Carlin mine in the second quarter, all of which was coupled with extended planned maintenance shutdown at the Turquoise Ridge’s Sage autoclave.

In addition, lower recovery and throughput at several mines further reduced the first half production.

GlobalData has identified China, Australia, Russia, the US and Canada as the top five countries for gold production, with overall production from these countries expected to increase by 5.7% year-on-year to 50.8-million ounces for the full-year.

“Production in China, after reaching an all-time high in 2014 and a subsequent downtrend, is expected to grow by around 4% in 2021. The country has been tackling issues related to frequent policy changes and depleting ore reserves, to which the pandemic became an additional challenge in 2020,” Bajaj comments.

He adds that production in Indonesia will increase by 13.7% owing to a rise in output from Grasberg following a transition to underground activities during the first half of 2019.

Following steep declines in 2020, production is also expected to increase in Canada and Western Africa in 2021.