Ghana’s stagnant oil sector: Government must act fast

When industry players in Ghana’s energy sector recently gathered under the guidance of the Public Interest and Accountability Committee (PIAC), the stunted nature of the country’s oil production dominated the conversation.

The nation’s crude oil output has been steadily falling since its peak in 2019 when production hit 71.4 million barrels. Fast forward to 2023, and that number dropped to 48.25 million barrels—an annual average decline of close to 10 percent.

This decline, while troubling, is not entirely unexpected. With no new fields coming on-stream since this peak, output from the sector has been challenged. The Jubilee field, Ghana’s first major offshore oil discovery, is in the 14th year of its expected 25-year production cycle and is now approaching its natural decline. Similarly, the TEN (Tweneboa, Enyenra, Ntomme) field, which once promised to deliver 80,000 barrels per day (bpd), has been producing far below expectations at only 20,000 barrels per day (bpd) due to complexities within the field’s reservoirs. However, there’s a silver lining: the TEN field is rich in gas, with only about 7 percent of its gas resources tapped so far. This untapped potential offers hope for future gains if strategic actions are taken.

There is also the Sankofa Gye Nyame field (OCTP) which currently produces close to 25,000 bpd and vast amounts of gas for domestic use. The fourth field yet to come on stream is the Deepwater Tano Cape Three Points (DWT/CTP) block operated by Pecan Energies (formerly Aker Energy). The company is currently engaging a wide range of stakeholders towards the delivery of a final investment decision ahead of full-scale operations.

The state of Ghana’s oil sector

Despite Jubilee, TEN and Sankofa, contributing 100 percent of Ghana’s current total oil production, the outlook for the sector must concern every well-meaning Ghanaian. If action isn’t taken soon, the country’s once-burgeoning oil industry will be short-lived. It’s a situation that calls for immediate intervention by all sector players, led by the government, and strong leadership to reverse the trend.

Ghana’s oil sector is at a crossroads. The global energy transition, which promotes renewable energy over fossil fuels, poses a significant challenge to countries that rely on oil for revenues. For Ghana, this, along with other perceived risks, has resulted in a decrease in international investment interest. In recent years, negotiations with major oil companies have fallen through due to disagreements over contract terms and an uncertain regulatory environment.

One of the biggest concerns for potential investors in Ghana is the lack of regulatory predictability. International Oil Companies (IOCs) have voiced frustration over issues like contract sanctity and fiscal instability, both of which make it difficult to commit to capital-intensive, long-term projects. Ghana’s last oil block licensing round was in 2018, and since then, negotiations for all awarded blocks have stalled. Meanwhile, countries like Ivory Coast, Mozambique and Guyana are quickly becoming more attractive options for oil investments. At a recent local content conference organised by the Petroleum Commission in Takoradi, a panel discussion on the state of the sector revealed useful gems. Players expressed cautious optimism about the sector, decrying the slow nature of decision-making.

Attracting investors

Once hailed as an attractive and friendly destination for investors, it seems this perception is fast flying out of the window. Take ExxonMobil’s entry into Ghana’s oil sector in 2018, for example. This was a game-changer as the oil giant had indicated that it would invest US$5 billion into the sector. Then just a year later, Exxon announced it was exiting the country. Why did Exxon make this decision? Was it frustration in doing business in Ghana? Were the block sizes awarded in the licensing round of 2018 too small? Did it have to do with the low quality of data provided?

There are other issues that continue to make Ghana unattractive: the long-drawn-out arbitration case involving ENI, Springfield and the government did a lot to create discomfort amongst foreign investors. Hess Corporation, Anadarko and Aker all exited in a similar fashion.

There is also still the ongoing international arbitration case at the courts in London, following a tax dispute between Tullow and the Ghana Revenue Authority (GRA).

Any investor will tell you that the optics do not look good or promising. The perception must change, it should not just be rhetoric, but a concerted effort and action must be clearly visible. As a Senior Executive of Tullow recently commented at a forum, investment decisions on project opportunities, are subjected to a thorough competitive review process, amidst other competing options within a portfolio, its bankability, efficiency and delivery timelines.

When a decision is finally taken, according to this Senior Executive, it behoves the government to keep its end of the bargain, guaranteeing that the agreements stand the test of time.

The simple fact remains: the quickest way to enhance the growth of Ghana’s oil and gas industry is through renewed investments. With the right incentives and a stable regulatory environment, there’s no doubt that Ghana can regain its position as a key player in sub-Saharan Africa. After all, as it is oft said, “money goes where it is welcome.”

Stemming the decline

One practical solution to revitalize Ghana’s oil output is enabling and prioritising Infrastructure-Led Exploration (ILX) in Ghana’s oil basins. This approach involves using existing oil and gas infrastructure to support the recovery of untapped pockets of oil in nearby marginal fields. The technique has proven effective in other oil-producing countries, and operators in Ghana are keen to implement it. However, it requires swift governmental approval and support to move forward. ILX continues to be touted as the future of the industry, a more novel form of exploration that makes sense, because it enables rapid development of discoveries, promotes efficient use of infrastructure and is a cost effective and sure way to reignite existing fields. What the partners require immediately would be access rights to carry out such activities. It is understood that negotiations have been initiated but fast-tracking decisions around it, is crucial.

Another critical issue that demands attention is the TEN Enhancement Plan of Development (TAPOD). This plan aims to reverse the decline at the TEN field, boost oil recovery, and make better use of domestic gas resources. The Petroleum Commission, at the recent PIAC workshop, assured stakeholders that the operator of the field and the commission have undertaken reviews of the TAPOD to facilitate the amendment of the existing POD for the TEN field. To avoid further field decline, urgent action is required to complete the reviews and approve the amended plan of development. Every day of delay exacerbates the field’s decline and deters potential investors.

There is also a pressing action that needs to be taken to address the deficit in midstream gas infrastructure to support exports from producing fields and feed the domestic market in a sustainable way. The development of well-established gas infrastructure will fast-track Ghana’s energy security by taking advantage of the vast amount of gas within the nation’s basins and making gas a transition fuel to boost the economy. It is time for the government to review its current Gas Master plan to ensure that it is fit for purpose within the context of the growth aspirations for the industry and take opportunities to expedite current Gas Sales agreement negotiations. To unlock significant investment in gas production, the government must be ready to provide the payment security and guarantees required to support the development of the country’s abundant gas resources.

Government, your move

Ghana’s oil and gas sector is brimming with potential, but it is teetering on the edge. The government’s next steps are crucial to improve the country’s attractiveness. Approving necessary agreements, such as the gas sales contract and the TAPOD, is paramount. Expanding ILX operations could breathe new life into declining fields. Additional measures to transform the sector must include better fiscal terms, the right oil and gas infrastructure, regulatory clarity, foreign investment boost and industry-academia collaboration.

The path forward is clear without doubt: fast, decisive action by the government to create an investment-friendly environment that also honours existing agreements. This will stabilize production and position Ghana as a major oil and gas hub in Africa for years to come.

In this moment, the clock is ticking. It’s time for the government to act—before the industry collapses. Ghana’s energy future depends on it.