Ghana to return to single digit inflation in quarter one 2026

Ghana will return to single digit inflation in the first quarter of 2026.

According to IC Research, it shifted forward its forecast to quarter one 2026, on the back of the sluggish disinflation and earlier forex pressure.

“We also flag the renewed external policy uncertainty as a risk to exchange rate, energy, and food prices with a pass-through to inflation in 2025. However, the recent strong appreciation of the Ghanaian cedi will tame the price pressures in December 2024 into early 2025, potentially capping the upside risk”, it stressed.

The Bank of Ghana’s (BoG’s) inflation forecast showed a slightly elevated profile but remains a tad bullish on horizon for single digit.

In the IC Research June 2024 inflation update (Canary in the Coal Mine), it raised its 2024 inflation forecast to between 19.3% and 21.3% as the sluggish disinflation heightened the risk of overshoot on BoG’s initial end-2024 target of 15.0% ± 2.0%.

While the MPC was silent on the updated forecast for end-2024, the Committee revealed a slight elevation in the one-year ahead average inflation to 20.1% against 19.0% at the September MPC meeting.

Ghana’s annual consumer inflation climbed for the third month to 23% in November 2024, the sharpest since May 2024, accelerating from 22.1% in the prior month.

Upward pressure came mostly from food prices (25.9% vs 22.8% in October), especially for staple items like beans and yams.