Despite extensive debt restructuring, Fitch Ratings warns that Ghana will likely face considerable liquidity pressures in 2025 and 2026.
The rating agency attributes this to the persistently high interest-to-revenue ratio, which will remain among the highest of any sovereign rated by Fitch.
According to Fitch’s projections, this ratio is expected to reach 29% in 2025 and rise slightly to 30% in 2026—nearly double the emerging market average of 16%.
This underscores the significant fiscal strain facing the country, even after its efforts to stabilize its finances.
Thomas Garreau, Associate Director for Europe, Middle East, and Africa Sovereign Ratings at Fitch, emphasized the urgency of further fiscal adjustments.
“Ghana will still face significant liquidity pressures,” he stated. “Despite notable fiscal consolidation, the elevated interest-to-revenue ratio of approximately 30% highlights the need for drastic measures to strengthen the fiscal economy.”
Fitch acknowledges that Ghana has already achieved a primary fiscal adjustment of 4.6 percentage points between 2022 and 2024—a substantial effort aimed at reducing the fiscal deficit.
However, these steps alone are insufficient to alleviate the looming liquidity challenges.
The agency anticipates Ghana will complete its external debt restructuring by the end of June 2025, which could pave the way for Fitch to remove the country from sovereign default status by July 2025.
Even so, the high cost of servicing debt continues to weigh heavily on Ghana’s financial recovery, pointing to a challenging path ahead.