Electoral contestations and our confidence in elections
The country is roughly 85 days away from the December 7 elections. Once again, the Electoral Commission (EC) is in the cross hairs of the main opposition party.
Barring any last-minute change of heart, the National Democratic Congress (NDC) is planning a nationwide demonstration on Tuesday, September 17 dubbed: “Enough is Enough.” Per the hashtags on social media announcing the event, the demonstration seeks to – a) highlight the importance of protecting citizens’ vote; b) demand an audit of the voter’s register; and c) draw attention to why the upcoming election must be free and fair.
This brings back memories of the advocacy efforts by “Let My Vote Count” in the lead up to the 2016 election where there was a demand for a new voter’s register. The EC’s resistance to the call back then led to several narratives about its motives and whether it could be trusted to play a fair and impartial role in that election. In the end, and after a few court-resolved challenges, it delivered an election whose outcome has been scored as “completely free and fair” by high percentages of Ghanaians – 69 per cent (2017) and 65 per cent (2019) per data from the Afrobarometer survey.
Electoral contestations
We continue to witness two types of electoral contestations. The first tends to focus on the administrative processes leading up to election day such as – registration of voters, exhibition of the provisional register, producing a credible voter’s register, resolution of discrepancies, among others. The second deals with election outcomes where a) the result is disputed and rejected by a contesting part, and b) the seeking of a legal remedy from the courts to resolve the contestation. Two of our elections have witnessed the ultimate contestation –2012 (contested by the New Patriotic Party) and 2020 (contested by the National Democratic Congress) presidential elections.
In both cases, the Supreme Court validated the results of the election, rejecting the contestations of the losing party. The resort to democratic practices and avenues (courts, demonstrations) to resolve our electoral contestations must be commended. In the same breath, we must condemn those occasions where acts of violence have been committed as part of these contestations.
Political parties are free to raise questions about the processes leading to an election and if there are concerns that need addressing, the EC cannot afford the luxury of ignoring them.
However, it appears that these contestations are intensifying from election to election. It is also coming at a very challenging time for Ghana’s democracy. I say so for two reasons.
First, Ghanaians are expressing a loss of trust in the EC at levels never seen before. This has not always been the case. Between Afrobarometer Round 1 (1999) and Round 3 (2005), the percentage of Ghanaians expressing “a lot” of trust in the EC significantly improved from 32 per cent to 50 per cent. However, between Round 3 (2005) and Round 9 (2022), that percentage has significantly declined by 40 percentage points (50 per cent to 10 per cent). Are our electoral contestations chipping away at citizen’s trust in the institution? What explains this declining trust?
Second, and the most obvious, is how citizens are evaluating the freeness and fairness of our elections. In Afrobarometer Round 6 (2014), when asked to evaluate the 2012 elections, only 28 per cent rated it as “completely free and fair.” In Round 9 (2022) 38 per cent rated the 2020 elections as “completely free and fair.” In Round 5 (2012), on the same question, 42 per cent rated the 2008 election as “completely free and fair.” Recall the concerns raised in the aftermath especially with regard to the security issues in Tain and the eventual boycott by the New Patriotic Party in that constituency. Now compare these to how Ghanaians rated, as “completely free and fair”, the 2004 election (64 per cent) in Afrobarometer Round 4 (2008) or that of the 2016 election (69 per cent) in Round 7 (2017).
These contestations, however legitimate, affect how free and fair citizens feel a given election was.
What Next?
While confidence in election outcomes (judged as free and fair) as well as trust in the election management body (EC) is on a significant decline, support for elections as the method for choosing leaders remains strong and stable. Across eight rounds (R2-R9) of the Afrobarometer survey, support levels have ranged between 85 per cent and 93 per cent.
My overarching point is not to say there is no legitimate place for electoral contestations in Ghana’s democracy. It is simply to a) draw our attention to the difficult terrain in which these contestations are occurring; and b) point out that, the other real task facing Ghana’s democracy is halting declining trust in the election management body because of the effect it has on citizen confidence in both our electoral processes and outcomes.
The writer is Project Director, Democracy Project.