The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that Ghana’s debt-to-GDP ratio will reach 82.9% by the end of 2024.
This figure was released in the 2024 Fiscal Monitor Report during the annual IMF/World Bank Meetings in Washington, D.C.
As of July 2024, the Bank of Ghana reported a debt-to-GDP ratio of approximately 75.7%.
By the end of 2024, total revenue mobilization is expected to account for 16.9% of GDP, reflecting a slight increase from the IMF’s 2023 projections.
The report’s projections were based on the government’s debt situation before the Debt Restructuring Programme. Officials from the Ministry of Finance indicated that they anticipate a significant decrease in the debt-to-GDP ratio once the effects of this program are factored in.
Looking ahead, the report forecasts a reduction in Ghana’s debt-to-GDP ratio to 79.5% in 2025.
This marks the second Bretton Woods institution to predict a decline in the debt stock as a percentage of GDP.
On a global scale, the IMF has raised concerns about high public debt, which is projected to exceed $100 trillion (93% of global GDP) in 2024 and continue to rise through the end of the decade, potentially reaching 100% of GDP by 2030.
While debt is expected to stabilize or decline in about two-thirds of countries, levels will remain significantly higher than those seen before the pandemic.
“Countries where debt is not projected to stabilize account for more than half of global debt and about two-thirds of global GDP”.
“The political discourse on fiscal issues has increasingly tilted toward higher government spending in recent decades”.
“Fiscal policy uncertainty has increased, and political redlines on taxation have become more entrenched,” the report said.
“Spending pressures to address green transitions, population ageing, security concerns, and long-standing development challenges are mounting,” it added.