Behavioural change can reverse spike in coronavirus infections

Approximately 14 months ago, various debates around the possible global impact of the coronavirus began to emerge.

A few weeks later, the novel coronavirus, (aka SAR-COV-2) had rapidly spread around the world leading many nations to implement strict lockdowns to try and reduce the growing impact of the unprecedented pandemic.

Ghana comparatively experienced a relatively lower first wave of SAR-COV-2 infections and COVID-19 deaths during the “first wave”. Currently, the country is in the throes of the second wave with officially recorded and published infection cases as at February 3^rd exceeding 67,000.

Table 1 according to Professor Douglas Boateng, supply chain and industrialisation expert with vast global sectorial experience, are the comparative facts on active cases as a percentage of documented infection cases for January 4^th 2021 and February 3^rd 2021 for Ghana, Africa and the Global population

Table 1:- Active cases as percent of recorded infections

Similarly, for recovered rates as a percentage of documented infection cases, Table 2 presents the summary statistical data for the three (3) groupings.

Table 2:- Recovered cases as percent of recorded infections

Corona fatigue is definitely the cause of the spikes in both infection and active cases. The increasing serious and critical cases have major implications for our fragile public health supply chain system. Whilst the majority of the known ‘infectants’ have luckily survived, if our recovery rate drops below 90%, the citizenry must unfortunately expect more deaths from COVID-19.

Equally, should the active cases as a percentage of recorded infections exceed 10%, the citizenry must expect some unintended consequences for our lives and livelihoods. This will include the imposition of further restrictions on amongst others, our movements and interactions.

In addition to the current increase in the number of infection cases, recent reports have also indicated that some of the over 76 million ‘infectants’ who have recovered globally from COVID-19 are experiencing worrying and yet to be understood post recovery symptoms.

In fact, some according to the medical experts and scientists have unfortunately already been re-infected and retested positive.

There are still too many ‘unknowns’ about SAR-COV-2 and the associated COVID-19 disease. We are part of a virtually ‘borderless world’ where the new and highly transmissible SAR-COV-2 variants from the UK, South Africa and Brazil are already been transported by the global citizenry to various corners of the world, including Ghana.

Although the roll out of vaccines are “gladly” on the horizon, Prof Boateng was of the view that the scientists need more time to firmly establish the immediate, medium and long-term efficacies of the various approved vaccines.

The global battle with this complex virus is far from over. The good news is that we can reverse the increasing disturbing trends in especially our beloved motherland through an immediate change in our individual and collective behaviours.

Vigilance and strict adherence to the WHO safety protocols are immediately required. We ignore the warning spikes in infection and active cases and the significant drop in our recovered rate in the last 30 days at our own peril.

Professor Douglas Boateng is an international chartered director and Africa’s first-ever appointed Professor Extraordinaire for Industrialisation and Supply Chain Governance. He is the CEO of PanAvest International and the founding non-executive chairman of MY-future YOUR-Future and OUR-Future (“MYO”) and the highly popular daily Nyansa Kasa series.