Attacks on electoral commission sparks concerns for Nigeria polls
Lagos, Nigeria – On Sunday, Nigerian policemen repelled an attack by unknown gunmen on the office of the Independent National Electoral Commission in the southeastern state of Enugu.
The incident has reinforced persistent doubts that Nigeria’s general elections will proceed as planned next month.
Banditry in the northwest, secessionists in the southeast and violence in the northeast by armed groups allied to ISIL (ISIS) have already contributed to an atmosphere of rapidly escalating insecurity.
But the attack on the electoral commission’s offices and recent comments from a top INEC official have amplified growing concerns around the elections.
“If the insecurity is not monitored and dealt with decisively, it could ultimately culminate in the cancellation and/or postponement of elections in sufficient constituencies to hinder declaration of elections results,” said Abdullahi Abdu Zuru, chairman of INEC’s Board of Electoral Institute at the validation of election security training resources in Abuja last week.
In December 2022, three attacks including targeted arson and the use of explosives rocked INEC offices in the southeastern state of Imo, leaving five people dead.
In recent years, there have been targeted attacks against the commission’s facilities and staff in the country’s southeast as secessionist agitation by Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) has turned violent, prompting a fierce military response from the government.
These incidents are the latest in the long-running pattern of violence around Nigeria’s usually keenly contested elections, but experts say this is a new wave that takes insecurity in the country into uncharted territory.
“Historically, as we approach election cycle, there is always heightened violence in the country,” Oluwole Ojewale, Dakar-based analyst at the Institute of Security Studies Africa told Al Jazeera. “What has now changed is we now have heightened attacks on INEC infrastructure. We have not seen this dimension before,” he said.
An increase in sophistry
Last month, the electoral commission said it had recorded 50 attacks in 15 of the country’s 36 states and the capital since 2019. Data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED), suggests that might be a conservative estimate.
According to ACLED data shown to Al Jazeera in December 2022, there have been more than 100 attacks associated with elections since the last elections in 2019. At least 67 of them were recorded on non-election days between January 2019 and December 2022.
The year with the highest incidence of violence, with 24 events, was 2019. There were 21 attacks in 2020, 14 in 2021 and 9 in the last year.
Despite the drop, analysts say the episodes represent an increase in precision and sophistry as there are now more attacks focused on high-level offices and with more explosives being used.
On December 12, 2022, the day collection of Permanent Voters’ Cards (PVCs) began nationwide, INEC’s state headquarters in Imo was attacked at 3am. It was the third attack in 12 days on an INEC office and targeted the Election and Party Monitoring department, local newspapers reported.