Analysts Don’t See Too Much Upside for Oil Prices

The OPEC+ group’s production increase and expectations of weaker demand growth due to the U.S. tariff policies and potential economic slowdown will cap oil price rises this year, the monthly Reuters poll showed on Monday.

Brent Crude prices are set to average $72.94 a barrel this year, according to the poll of 49 analysts and economists in March. That’s lower than the average of $74.63 per barrel expected by the experts in the February Reuters survey.

WTI Crude, the U.S. benchmark, is set to average $69.16 per barrel in 2025, down from the $70.66 expected in February.

On Monday morning, oil prices were trading very close to the average analyst estimates for the whole of 2025.

The front-month WTI Crude futures were trading slightly higher at $69.45 as of 7:40 a.m. Brent Crude prices were up by 0.5% at $74.05.

The start of the easing of the OPEC+ cuts from April 1, growth in non-OPEC+ supply from the U.S., Brazil, Norway, and Guyana, and softer demand for oil amid the market and trade chaos with the U.S. tariff policies are pushing the oil market into a surplus, analysts and investment banks say.

The tariff wars and high spare capacity, mostly from the OPEC+ producers, are skewing the oil price risk to the downside in the medium term, Goldman Sachs said earlier in March.

Goldman Sachs cut its year-end forecast for Brent Crude prices, citing expectations of slower U.S. economic growth and additional OPEC+ supply.

“While the $10 a barrel selloff since mid-January is larger than the change in our base case fundamentals, we reduce by $5 our December 2025 forecast for Brent to $71,” the investment bank’s research team said in a note, adding that “The medium-term risks to our forecast remain to the downside given potential further tariff escalation and potentially longer OPEC+ production increases.”