Agriculture value chains in Africa; the sleeping trillions of dollars
Overview
The African continent has a land area of 30.37 million sq km (11.7 million sq mi)—enough to fit in the U.S., China, India, Japan, Mexico, and many European nations, combined. Especially, Africa’s land mass is slightly bigger than the U.S., China, India, the U.K., Japan, Eastern Europe, Italy, Germany, Switzerland, Spain, France, Belgium, Portugal, the Netherlands, and a few other countries put together. So Africa is not lacking land.
Africa had around 1,162 million hectares of agricultural land in 2021. The continent has 24% of the world’s agricultural land and 17% of the arable. Because of the absence of serious investment in agriculture, nearly two-thirds of Africa’s land is misused, abandoned, and degraded, which downgrades the sustainable contribution of African vast land to economic development and resilience to climate change.
Africa has the largest restoration opportunity of any continent: more than 700 million hectares (1.7 billion acres) of abandoned, misused, or degraded lands that can be restored. The potential benefits of restoring these lands to climate-smart economic use include increased production-processing and marketing of agricultural commodities and stocks, improved food and water security, biodiversity protection, climate change resilience, and accelerated economic growth.
Problems
Except for countries with sizable populations of European descent—such as South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Kenya—agriculture has been largely confined to subsistence farming and has been considerably dependent on the inefficient system of shifting cultivation, in which land is temporarily cultivated with simple implements until its fertility decreases and then abandoned for a time to allow the soil to regenerate. In addition, seasonal and annual rainfall variability have impacted negatively on agricultural sector performance in Africa in the past decade.
Although several countries have made efforts to raise productive levels by selecting better varieties of seeds and planting materials, using tractors, irrigation systems, and other mechanized equipment, or increasing the use of mineral fertilizers and insecticides, such measures, however, have been relatively limited, and they have raised concerns about their part in accelerating soil erosion and desertification.
The persistence of relatively low-productivity agricultural systems over large parts of the continent also stems from a lack of integration between crop production and animal husbandry. Traditionally, sedentary cultivators like the Dagaabas, Grusis/Frafras, Kusasis, and Bissas in the upper regions of Ghana and neighbouring Burkina Faso and Togo, the Dagombas, Gonjas, and Konkombas in mid-northern Ghana and neighbouring Ivory Coast, Hausa in Nigeria, and the Kikuyu in Kenya live apart from their nomadic herdsmen neighbours (the Fulani and Maasai, respectively), with the result that over large areas of the continent farmers do not have access to animals for draft power or to manure for fertilizer.
Opportunities
The need to sharply increase food production to meet the demands of a rapidly growing population, however, has remained paramount. Although intense research at such centres as the Savanna Agricultural Research Institute (SARI) in Ghana and the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture in Ibadan, Nigeria, has been directed at developing high-performing varieties of crops and designing more appropriate cropping systems, such research activities have never been linked to development and investment.
As of 2022, the global GDP amounted to over 100 trillion U.S. dollars. And the agriculture market size has grown strongly in recent years, often regaining far above 10% share of the global GDP. It will grow from $13,272.75 billion in 2023 to $14,356.23 billion by the end of 2024 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.2%.
Similarly, Subsaharan Africa has comparative advantages in producing and selling virtually all of the major agricultural commodities and stocks in the global market. The following agricultural commodities have huge market sizes in the global economy, and serious investment and commitment to these commodities and tourism would have helped the African countries develop their economies faster than gold, cocoa, and even oil and gas. The following are data from published World Bank reports on the global market size of some commodities and stocks relevant to this article analysis:
The global tourism market was worth around USD 11.39 trillion in 2023 and is predicted to grow to around USD 18.44 trillion by 2032 with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of roughly 5.5% between 2024 and 2032. This is nearly twice the market size of oil and gas; the oil and gas global market size was recorded at USD 6,705.68 billion in 2023, which is estimated to be at USD 6,923.33 billion in 2024 and projected to reach USD 8,917.40 billion by 2031, growing at a CAGR of 3.68% from 2024 to 2031.
Gold Mining Market Size was valued at USD 201.2 Billion in 2022. The global lithium market size was valued at USD 38.2 billion in 2022, although it is projected to reach a value of USD 230.4 billion by 2031. Asia-Pacific dominates the lithium market. Note that the global market size of each of the following: fresh vegetables, fresh fruits, tobacco, beef, corn, rice, pork, poultry, and fisheries, is way higher than gold mining. We therefore should shamefully ask ourselves why the evil of galamsey and its serious environmental, health, security, and economic consequences when our lands and water bodies could have been used to produce these commodities, which have bigger demand in the global market than gold.
The following are facts from published World Bank reports that are available on the World Wide Web. A search on global market size with any of the commodities of stock names will give you confirmation of these facts.
The global tobacco market size was estimated at USD 886.09 billion in 2023 and is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.5% from 2024 to 2030 due to the rising tobacco consumption in the developing regions of Asia and Africa.
The global rice market size was poised to grow from USD 292.39 billion in 2022 to USD 334.24 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 2.2% in the forecast period (2023-2030).
Revenue in the fish and seafood market amounts to US$676.10bn in 2024. The market is expected to grow annually by 6.49% (CAGR 2024-2029). The global seafood market was valued at USD 320 billion in 2022 and is expected to grow from USD 340.86 billion in 2023 to reach USD 564.98 billion by 2031, at a CAGR of 6.52% during the forecast period (2024-2031). The global fresh fish market size was valued at USD 222.51 billion in 2021, and it is anticipated to reach USD 276.66 billion by 2030 at a CAGR of 2.76% during the forecast period 2022-2030.
Corn market size and share were valued at USD 297.99 billion in 2023. The market is anticipated to grow from USD 307.91 billion in 2024 to USD 410.02 billion by 2032, exhibiting a CAGR of 3.6% during the forecast period.
The global fresh vegetable market size was at USD 668.41 billion in 2023, and it is projected to reach around USD 925.87 billion by 2033, poised to grow at a CAGR of 3.36% during the forecast period of 2024 to 2033.
Global Fresh Fruits Market size was poised to grow from USD 594.32 billion in 2023 to USD 800.93 billion by 2031, at a CAGR of 3.8% during the forecast period (2024-2031). The rising consumption of fresh fruits and liquids is moving the market forward.
The global poultry market was valued at US$ 284.43 billion in 2022 and is expected to exhibit a CAGR of 3.5% in terms of revenue over the forecast period to reach US$ 375.41 billion by 2030. Poultry is domesticated birds such as chicken, duck, turkey, and geese, which provide food and fibre.
The global beef market was valued at USD 450.5 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 645.6 billion by 2033, at a CAGR of 4.5% during the forecast period 2024–2033.
The global pork meat market was valued at USD 279.90 billion in 2023 and is anticipated to reach around USD 411.15 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 3.92% from 2024 to 2033.
The global cacao bean market was valued at USD 13.54 billion in 2023 and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% from 2024 to 2030. Notably, the market size and demand for each of the following commodities—soybeans, groundnuts, sugar, tomatoes, cassava, bamboo, tea, cotton, palm, onions, and even mushrooms—is higher than that of cocoa. In fact, if less than half of the attention and investment poured on cocoa were to be given to any of these commodities, we would have made better gains in our GDP and faster development of our economy.
Again, the following are facts from published World Bank reports that are available on the World Wide Web:
The global soybean market size was USD 200.37 billion in 2023, accounted for USD 212.79 billion in 2024, and is expected to reach around USD 388.33 billion by 2034, expanding at a CAGR of 6.2% from 2024 to 2034.
Global Groundnut/Groundnut/Peanuts Market Size was valued at USD 90.05 Billion in 2023. The peanuts industry is projected to grow from USD 92.26 billion in 2024 to USD 109.29 billion by 2032, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.14% during the forecast period (2024-2-22032).
The global sugar market will reach US$ 113.67 billion by 2032, up from US$ 64.07 billion in 2023, with a CAGR of 6.58% between 2024 and 2032.
The global tomato market was valued at USD 195.34 billion in 2023. It is expected to reach USD 294.06 billion in 2032, growing at a CAGR of 4.65% over the forecast period (2024-32).
The cassava market size was valued at USD 175.9 billion in 2022. The cassava industry is projected to grow from USD 183.25 billion in 2024 to USD 254.28 billion by 2032, exhibiting a compound annual growth.
The global bamboo market was estimated at $59.30 billion in 2021 and is expected to reach $61.69 billion in 2022.
The tea market was valued at USD 56.23 billion in 2021 and is predicted to reach USD 95.23 billion by 2030 with a CAGR of 6.3% from 2022 to 2030. Tea is one of the most consumed aromatic beverages across the world that is derived from the Camellia sinensis plant.
The global palm oil market was valued at USD 70.44 billion in 2023 and is anticipated to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.1% from 2024 to 2030.
The global mushroom market size was estimated at USD 50.3 billion in 2021 and is expected to reach USD 54.9 billion in 2022.
The cotton market size is estimated at USD 43.96 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 50.22 billion by 2029, growing at a CAGR of 2.70% during the forecast period (2024-2029).
The global onions and shallots market size was USD 51.920 billion in 2021, and the market is projected to touch USD 64.092 million by 2032 at a CAGR of 2.1% during the forecast period.
The following are some other commodities that our lands and water bodies could have been used to produce to fetch foreign exchange from the global market that we have ignored:
The global coconut products market was valued at USD 20.24 billion in 2022 and is expected to expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.4% from 2023 to 2030.
The global rubber market size was USD 45.93 billion in 2023, accounted for USD 48.27 billion in 2024, and is expected to reach around USD 79.38 billion by 2034, expanding at a CAGR of 5.1% from 2024 to 2034. The North American rubber market size reached USD 19.29 billion in 2023.
The global sorghum market size was estimated at USD 22.11 billion in 2023 and is anticipated to grow at a CAGR of 5.4% from 2024 to 2030.
The sesame seed market was valued at around USD 7.35 billion in 2022 and is estimated to reach USD 9.27 billion by 2032. Sesame seeds are used in baking, confectionery, and snack product manufacture in the food business.
The millet market size is estimated at USD 11.53 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 14.443 billion by 2029, growing at a CAGR of 4.60% during the forecast period (2024-2029).
The size of the global cowpeas/beans market is expected to be worth USD 7.60 billion in 2024 and grow at a CAGR of 5.50% from 2024 to 2029 to achieve USD 9.93 billion by 2029. Cowpea is an annual herbaceous legume of the genus Vigna.
The banana market was valued at USD 13.98 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 14.78 billion by 2031, growing at a CAGR of 0.7% from 2024 to 2031.
All the above put together has over six trillion dollars of market size in the global economy. Subsaharan African countries, including Ghana, have the lands and weather conditions, as well as the labour and related resources, to produce all these commodities at cheaper cost, highest yields, and best quality. The only problems are the lack of investment in technology and other inputs, including infrastructure and processing facilities.
The Drive
The AU and most African countries have policy initiatives and open windows for full value chain investor actions for the agricultural and food production, processing, and marketing systems in Africa, with a bias towards building the resilience of smallholder farmers. The private sector investors could take advantage of the available markets and opportune policy advantages to invest in the comparative advantage opportunities glaring in the various commodities and stocks production, processing, and marketing from Africa to the whole world.
This includes investments in education, training, and social protection. A report by the FAO indicates that strengthening farmers’ skills and agency through training, positive role modelling, and mentorships and using approaches such as farmer field schools for learning and knowledge sharing is central to tapping the virgin potential of the sector in Africa. Strong social protection systems too could end food insecurity and build a strong and resilient Africa that can withstand shocks.
It also entrails best practice sharing. Providing a best practice clearinghouse for farmer associations and smallholders. This involves aiding in skills development, coordinating cross-country initiatives, and creating a first “port of call” for large corporate and institutional/commodity/stock focus investments to ensure the effectiveness and coordination of investments.
Farmers need access to markets to earn their fair share of the profit pool in the value chain. Good markets, in turn, provide food security for the population and facilitate Africa’s agricultural self-sufficiency. Making markets work is a supply chain infrastructure and information issue.
This concept requires the investor(s) to ensure that sufficient transport, warehouses, processing facilities, and other infrastructure are in place to get products to increasingly urbanizing and internationalizing markets. Farmers need access to information and off-taking networks to deliver products to the markets that offer them the best price. At the regional and country levels, investors and market actors need to create markets that allow the international and/or global trade of homegrown products. These initiatives in general shall cut across the wide spectrum of crops and products produced.
It also involves providing out-growers, smallholders, and contract farmers with financing to fund the improvements in the value chain on both the micro (farmer) and macro (export) levels. Investor financing and enablement means putting in place the resources frameworks and structures that foster an easy technology, know-how, inputs, and market access environment—for example, aiding farmers to get title to their individual or community lands they use and allowing them to use that land and their future capitals as collateral for all required resources for investments in their smallholder farms.
Recognizing the huge opportunity for the production of the above-listed commodities for the huge global market, the investor can leverage an ambitious 100 million hectares of abandoned or misused land in three years to add to the existing lands.
Justification
The investor has the advantage of enjoying the various government incentives and implementing highly business-friendly policies that reduce risk for farmers and consumers, such as subsidizing credit and inputs, guaranteeing prices, ensuring strategic reserves of food, and providing appropriate agricultural incentive support.
With full value chain investment and improved productivity, Africa could produce three to five times more cereals and coarse grains, legumes and cash crops, and… For fresh vegetables and fruits, livestock and fish, mushrooms, and other nontraditional agricultural commodities and stocks, that would possibly be dozens of times. We know that Africa can feed herself from millions of hectares of land and export to control more than half of the global market—she just needs investors who would venture the investment and policy mix to enable her to do it.
The investor(s) can cash out over six hundred billion dollars if they can control only 10% of the market of the above-listed commodities and stocks. Even if the investors initially control only 1% of the market of the commodities, over sixty billion dollars will be controlled.
Note that Africa has the land and all-natural resource comparative advantage to produce and control at least half (50%) of the global market of agricultural commodities as well as the global market of tourism, which is more than USD 13 trillion and 11 trillion, respectively, but the continent is currently rather import dependent. If serious investment and commitment had been given to agricultural production, processing, and marketing in Africa to the whole world, the African economy would have seized half of the agricultural share of the global GDP, which would have reached over 6.5 trillion USD and 5.5 trillion USD, respectively.
Accordingly, if Ghana had been able to secure only 1% of the agricultural sector and the tourism sector shares of the global market, the country would have boosted its GDP by over USD 130 billion and USD 110 billion, respectively. And considering the policy initiatives and economic environment, private individuals and groups have the space and motivation to invest in the agricultural and tourism sectors. The private investors are, however, shying away from these most viable sectors and rather venture into risky and nonviable sectors like estates, galamsey, etc., and even in the trade and importation of the same commodities that could have been produced, processed, and marketed viably. Some even carry cash to invest in properties and other businesses in Arabia, Europe, America, and even Asia.
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Authored by Akunkel Musah
Analyst: Peace, Security & Climate Change || Global Peace Campaigner
(akunkel.musah1@gmail.com )