The crude oil market experienced significant volatility this week, with prices spiking due to a combination of geopolitical tensions and supply concerns, but ultimately being held back by demand uncertainty.
Middle East Powder Keg Ignites Oil Rally
The week began with oil prices edging lower, but geopolitical events quickly took center stage. On Wednesday, oil futures surged by over $2 a barrel following the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran. This event, coupled with the killing of a senior Hezbollah commander in Beirut the day before, escalated tensions in the Middle East and raised concerns about potential supply disruptions. The situation further intensified when Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei reportedly ordered a direct strike on Israel in response to Haniyeh’s assassination. These developments heightened fears of the Gaza conflict expanding into a wider regional war, pushing oil prices higher.
Strait of Hormuz: A Chokepoint Under Threat
Adding to the bullish sentiment, analysts highlighted the risk of Iran potentially blocking the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway for global oil transport. Such a move could threaten 15-20% of global oil supply, with limited alternative pipeline capacity available. This possibility contributed to the upward pressure on prices.
U.S. Inventories Tighten, Fueling Price Gains
Supporting the price increase, U.S. crude oil stockpiles fell by 3.4 million barrels last week.