A Bullish Catalyst for Oil as 2024 Draws to a Close
While liquidity in oil markets is traditionally very low over the Christmas period, China has provided a bullish catalyst for Brent and WTI this year by announcing its monster $410 billion treasury bond sale.
– US natural gas producers are anticipating a reversal of fortunes next year after 2024 saw gas-focused drillers struggle with oversupply and multi-year price lows, dipping as low as $1.60 per mmBtu during the year.
– Over the next 12 months, US natural gas production in the Lower 48 states is expected to add around 4 BCf/day and surpass 107 BCf/day by next December, buoyed by Henry Hub finally trending $3.7 per MMbtu.
– Gas drillers are now assessing the impact of winter weather on demand to convert uncompleted wells to wells in production, with next year’s anticipated LNG feedgas ramp-up boosted by the recent launch of Venture Global’s Plaquemines LNG facility.
– Total US feedgas demand is set to rise from 13.2 BCf/day in 2024 to more than 19 BCf/day in 2026, following the commissioning of ExxonMobil’s Golden Pass LNG plant, pushed to late 2025 after a string of postponements.
Market Movers
– Norway’s state oil company Equinor (NYSE:EQNR) reported disappointing drilling results, as both the Mimung and Kvernbit wildcats failed to discover any commercial quantities of hydrocarbon.
– Canada’s upstream firm Vermillion Energy (TSE:VET) agreed to acquire privately held Westbrick Energy for $750 million, consolidating its acreage in the Deep Basin of Alberta and adding 50,000 boe/d of production.
– US offshore producer Talos Energy (NYSE:TALO) said it would terminate its so-called poison pill after it reached an agreement with billionaire Carlos Slim not to exceed the ownership threshold of 25% in the firm.
Tuesday, December 24, 2024
Pre-Christmas trading tends to be very low on liquidity and this week will be no exception, with prices barely moving around the $73 per barrel mark. That said, if there were enough trades, they would most probably push prices higher as China’s monster $410 billion treasury bond sale seems to be the long-awaited stimulus measure oil markets would appreciate. However, the impact might only be felt in the new year.
Trump Reignites Panama Canal Dispute. US President-elect Donald Trump has threatened to reclaim the Panama Canal for the United States to put an end to a ‘complete rip-off’, claiming that the high transit costs are unjustified given that the US accounts for over 70% of all transits.
Qatar Threatens EU Halt if Policies Not Stopped. Qatar vowed to stop shipping liquefied natural gas to the European Union if member states would enforce new regulations on forced labor and environmental damage, providing 13-14% of the continent’s LNG needs in recent years.
OECD Fossil Ban Deal Falls Through. Negotiations to limit export-credit energy finance for global fossil fuel projects organized under the umbrella of the OECD have collapsed without agreement, just weeks before US President-elect Donald Trump takes office.
Venture Global Files for NYSE IPO. Venture Global, one of the leading LNG developers in the US, filed for an initial public offering next year listing its shares under the symbol ‘VG’, seeking to raise some 3 billion from its IPO, mostly to fund operations as it expands its two plants in Louisiana.
Greece and Israel Form Mediterranean Partnership. The governments of Greece and Israel have signed an agreement to promote regional stability and energy projects, including the creation of a ‘green’ electricity corridor from Israel to EU countries in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Iraq Suspends Oil Deliveries to Syria. Iraq has stopped supplying crude oil to Syria, amounting to more than half of the country’s needs with some 120,000 b/d flowing daily up until now, with Damascus’ new rulers struggling to find new sources of oil after the Kurds halted supply, too.
Chile Launches Probe Against Mining Giant. Chile’s environmental regulator SMA has filed four separate charges against the Los Bronces copper mine operated by mining giant Anglo American (LON:AAL), alleging non-compliance with environmental permits including acid drainage.
Brazil Halts BYD Expansion on Slavery Allegations. Brazilian authorities halted the construction of a new EV plant in the country operated by China’s top electric car producer BYD (SHE: 002594) after workers were found to live in slavery-like conditions, rescuing 163 Chinese workers.
Europe Gets Exemptions from Gazprom Sanctions. Turkey and Hungary, two of the main buyers of Russian pipeline gas in Europe, were granted exemptions from recently introduced US sanctions on Gazprombank, the sister company of Russia’s pipeline gas monopoly Gazprom.
Spain Extends Windfall Tax by Government Decree. Less than a week after the Spanish parliament voted to eliminate the country’s windfall tax on energy companies, Spain’s government extended the levy into 2025 by direct government decree despite widespread concerns about falling investment.
India Pauses Commodity Futures Trading. India extended the suspension of trading in derivative contracts of key agriculture commodities until January 31, 2025, continuing a measure that was first introduced in 2021 to curb food inflation in wheat and rice, making it difficult for importers to hedge their risks.
US Oil Firms Crack Down on Methane. According to S&P Global, methane emissions in the Permian basin plunged 26% this year as drillers tightened emission controls to stop leaks of the potent greenhouse gas, emitting 34 bcf less than last year on the back of stricter Biden-era mandates.
El Salvador Reverses Mining Ban. The Central American nation of El Salvador overturned a seven-year ban on mining for metals as the bill proposed by President Nayib Bukele passed Congress on a 57-3 vote, eyeing gold reserves worth 3 trillion alongside untapped rare earth deposits.