High T-bill yields spur banks’ capital recovery – Fitch
Fitch Ratings has expressed optimism about the banking sector’s outlook, citing stronger profits and improving solvency following significant challenges in recent years.
The agency’s latest report highlights how high yields on Treasury bills have been pivotal in helping banks rebuild capital reserves and remain compliant with regulatory requirements.
The banking sector faced severe setbacks after government’s Domestic Debt Exchange Programme (DDEP) was introduced in December 2022. The initiative resulted in substantial losses for banks, leaving many struggling to maintain solvency. However, strong profits recorded in 2023 and 2024 have set the stage for recovery.
Fitch noted that these profits are driven largely by high-yield government securities, a trend expected to further bolster banks’ capital positions in 2025.
According to Fitch, “High profits are driving a recovery in the banking sector’s capitalisation after the large losses imposed by Ghana’s DDEP”.
The agency projects that most banks will achieve capital compliance by end of 2025, even as regulatory forbearance – which temporarily eases capital requirements – expires.
Fitch remains optimistic about the sector’s trajectory, highlighting that banks’ reliance on domestic deposits – rather than external debt – has shielded them from liquidity pressures seen in other markets. While foreign-currency liquidity coverage remains strong, the local-currency liquidity outlook is closely tied to Treasury bill yields.
Sovereign Debt Restructuring Boosts Confidence
Ghana’s ongoing sovereign external debt restructuring has also been a critical factor in stabilising the banking sector. The restructuring, expected to conclude in early 2025, has already yielded positive outcomes – including the October 2024 completion of a Eurobond exchange. This development enhanced Ghana’s access to international finance and eased local currency liquidity pressures.
The improvements led Fitch to upgrade Ghana’s Long-Term Local-Currency Issuer Default Rating to ‘CCC+’ from ‘CCC’. The agency anticipates further macroeconomic stabilisation in 2025; with GDP growth set to rise, inflation projected to decline and the exchange rate expected to stabilise. These conditions will reduce risks for the banking sector, strengthening its foundation for sustained recovery.
Resilience Despite Elevated Risks
Despite the progress, challenges remain. Non-performing loans (NPLs) in the banking sector have risen, with the NPL ratio climbing to 22.7 percent by October 2024 compared to 18.3 percent a year earlier., according to the November 2024 Monetary Policy Committee statement.
Although the Bank of Ghana has acknowledged these credit risks, it maintains that the sector remains “sound, well-capitalised and liquid”.
The central bank reported significant growth in the sector’s assets, which increased by 42.4 percent to GH¢367.2billion by the end of October 2024. Private sector credit also showed notable improvement, growing by 28.8 percent compared to a contraction in the previous year.
The central bank’s outlook emphasises the importance of sustained profits, recapitalisation efforts and strict credit underwriting standards.
“Performance will depend on banks’ adherence to recapitalisation plans and the implementation of prudent credit policies,” BoG Governor Dr. Ernest Addison said in the November 2024 MPC press statement.