Fitch Solutions has reaffirmed its forecast that Ghana’s real economic growth will slow from 5.5% in 2024 to 4.4% in 2025, attributing the deceleration to fiscal tightening by the new government.
The firm also projects a reduction in the budget deficit, narrowing from 5.9% of GDP in 2024 to 4.2% in 2025.
In its latest report, Fitch stated: “The election results align with our prediction of Mahama winning the presidency and the NDC [National Democratic Congress] securing a parliamentary majority. The peaceful voting process and smooth transfer of power matched our expectations.”
Despite the opposition’s victory, Fitch expects Ghana to maintain broad policy continuity.
The NDC’s parliamentary majority, however, could enable shifts in some policies, such as scrapping specific taxes like the electronic payment levy.
The report highlighted that these changes would have minimal fiscal impact, as the targeted taxes contribute less than 3.0% of total revenue.
To support fiscal consolidation under Ghana’s IMF programme, the NDC has pledged to introduce alternative revenue measures.
These include reducing tax exemptions and reviewing taxes on ports and the mining sector.
Fitch added, “Given Ghana’s reliance on concessional financing for macroeconomic stability, we believe relations with the IMF will remain stable, despite Mahama’s earlier statements about revisiting the deal.”