A Delicate Ceasefire Between Israel and Hezbollah

The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire that went into place on Tuesday continued to hold at the time of writing on Thursday.

The ceasefire applies only to trading fire between Israeli forces and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel continues as usual with its Gaza campaign. In the meantime, the ICC has issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant (former defense minister) for their actions in Gaza. Those warrants remain questionable as Israel did not sign the ICC founding documents (France argues).

Another propaganda move by Vladimir Putin this week as he signed a law banning adoption by people from countries allowing gender-affirming care. The move is explicitly designed to play on partisan divisions in the U.S. and to garner support for its war against Ukraine from among the American right wing. This should be viewed as a more powerful and impactful response than testing a hypersonic missile, as we noted last week.

Discovery & Development

TotalEnergies (TTE) is targeting new exploration in South Africa’s Deep Water Orange Basin (DWOB), seeking to drill seven offshore wells across 15,000km². The DWOB, located 200km from the coast, has attracted majors like Shell (SHEL) due to recent discoveries near the Namibian border. TTE faces legal challenges from environmental groups citing potential risks to fishing communities and ecosystems.