OPEC Lifts October Production Ahead of Planned Production Hikes

OPEC’s production increased by 370,000 barrels per day in October, a new Bloomberg survey has found.

OPEC’s October production increase—thanks to Libya’s political resolution and its resultant 500,000 barrel-per-day output boost—adds another layer of complexity to the group’s ongoing struggle to manage global oil markets. Libya’s output recovery led OPEC to raise its production to nearly 30 million barrels daily, even as Iraq, Iran, and Saudi Arabia lowered their output.

The backdrop of the group’s production boost is a murky market landscape: Brent crude oil prices have dropped nearly 19% since early April, falling to below $74 per barrel, driven by demand fears in China and production from OPEC that exceeds its quota.

At $74 per barrel, many OPEC+ nations may find it difficult—or impossible–to cover government spending, even for key players like Saudi Arabia, which has been strategically cutting production to support prices and pushing other members to stick with the plan.

OPEC+ now faces a critical choice. The group is scheduled to begin monthly output increases in December, but given the current market fragility that several anonymous delegates spoke to Bloomberg about, there’s little faith that they will follow through with this plan. The group has always maintained that its planning production cuts rollback would depend on market conditions. The question now is, are the current market conditions sufficient for OPEC to increase production even more?

Many delegates suggest that proceeding with scheduled hikes could intensify market oversupply issues, keeping prices uncomfortably low for many members.

OPEC+ ministers will meet on December 1 to lay out the plan for next year, but in the meantime, they face a near-impossible balancing act. A resolution to Libya’s crisis is a short-term boon, but without clear and consistent quota compliance from members like Iraq, the group risks intensifying a market imbalance. It’s becoming clear that OPEC+ may need to implement stricter compliance measures or risk losing control over the very markets it has worked to stabilize.